Is There An Opportunity With Simulations Plus, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SLP) 38% Undervaluation?
Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Simulations Plus fair value estimate is US$22.72
- Simulations Plus is estimated to be 38% undervalued based on current share price of US$14.14
- Analyst price target for SLP is US$24.67, which is 8.6% above our fair value estimate
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Simulations Plus, Inc. (NASDAQ:SLP) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$11.1m | US$10.7m | US$13.0m | US$15.6m | US$20.4m | US$23.7m | US$26.5m | US$29.1m | US$31.3m | US$33.3m |
| Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 15.89% | Est @ 12.15% | Est @ 9.53% | Est @ 7.69% | Est @ 6.41% |
| Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% | US$10.3 | US$9.1 | US$10.3 | US$11.4 | US$13.8 | US$14.7 | US$15.3 | US$15.5 | US$15.4 | US$15.1 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$131m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2035 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$33m× (1 + 3.4%) ÷ (8.2%– 3.4%) = US$719m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$719m÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= US$327m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$458m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$14.1, the company appears quite good value at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Simulations Plus as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.074. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Simulations Plus
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Simulations Plus, there are three further aspects you should explore:
- Financial Health: Does SLP have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does SLP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.