Last week, you might have seen that Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (NASDAQ:AOSL) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$21.36 in the past week. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$162m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.45 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Alpha and Omega Semiconductor's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$676.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 50% to US$1.75. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$660.0m and losses of US$1.04 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates increased, there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
View our latest analysis for Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
It will come as no surprise that expanding losses caused the consensus price target to fall 9.6% to US$22.00with the analysts implicitly ranking ongoing losses as a greater concern than growing revenues. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alpha and Omega Semiconductor at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Alpha and Omega Semiconductor is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.9% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% per year. It's pretty clear that Alpha and Omega Semiconductor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Alpha and Omega Semiconductor. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Alpha and Omega Semiconductor's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Alpha and Omega Semiconductor analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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