Oatly Group (NasdaqGS:OTLY) Quarterly Loss Of US$65 Million Reinforces Bearish Narratives
Oatly Group (NasdaqGS:OTLY) has laid out another tough quarter, with Q3 2025 revenue of US$222.8 million alongside a basic EPS loss of US$2.15 and net income excluding extra items at a loss of US$65.3 million. Over the past few quarters, the company has seen revenue move from US$202.2 million in Q2 2024 to US$214.3 million in Q4 2024 and then to US$222.8 million in Q3 2025. Quarterly basic EPS has ranged from a loss of US$1.02 in Q2 2024 to a loss of US$3.05 in Q4 2024 and a loss of US$2.15 in Q3 2025, setting a clear backdrop for how investors will judge the latest margin performance and any signs of earnings quality.
See our full analysis for Oatly Group.With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings picture lines up with the dominant stories around Oatly, and where the hard data pushes back against widely held narratives.
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Losses stay heavy at US$224.8 million over the year
- On a trailing twelve month basis to Q3 2025, Oatly reported total revenue of US$843.0 million and a net loss (excluding extra items) of US$224.8 million, giving you a sense of how sizeable the full year loss is compared to the quarterly Q3 loss of US$65.3 million.
- Bears argue the multi year earnings decline of about 10.5% per year and the continued lack of profitability over the last 12 months back their concern that the business model still has not reached a sustainable scale.
- The trailing loss of US$224.8 million sits alongside quarterly losses ranging from US$12.4 million in Q1 2025 to US$91.2 million in Q4 2024, which critics point to as evidence that red ink is persistent rather than a one off.
- With basic EPS over the last four reported quarters running between a loss of US$0.42 and a loss of US$3.05, skeptics see the consistent negative EPS as reinforcing the bearish view that earnings stability is still some way off.
Revenue nears US$843 million but profit still out of reach
- Across the last six reported quarters, revenue has stayed in a relatively tight band between US$197.5 million and US$222.8 million per quarter, which aggregates to US$843.0 million over the last twelve months while net income excluding extra items over that same period totals a loss of US$224.8 million.
- Supporters of the bullish view point out that bulls are looking for margin improvement on this revenue base, yet the fact that the company is not forecast to be profitable within the next three years keeps that optimism heavily dependent on future execution rather than what the recent income statement shows.
- Trailing EPS of US$7.48 in losses per share and five year losses that have widened by around 10.5% a year do not yet show the margin expansion bulls hope to see flowing through the P&L.
- At the same time, bulls can point to the Q1 2025 net loss of US$12.4 million versus much larger losses in Q4 2024 and Q3 2025 as an example of how quarterly numbers can move around while still leaving the longer term profitability question unresolved.
DCF fair value and P/S both signal a valuation gap
- With the current share price at US$12.39 versus a DCF fair value of US$16.11 and a P/S ratio of 0.4x compared to 0.9x for the US Food industry and 4.7x for peers, Oatly screens as cheaper than both its own DCF snapshot and the sector multiples supplied.
- Consensus style views often highlight this apparent valuation gap as a counterweight to the loss profile, since the stock trading 23.1% below the DCF fair value and at a P/S discount can appeal to investors who are comfortable with the ongoing loss run rate.
- Trailing twelve month revenue of US$843.0 million set against the 0.4x P/S ratio means investors are paying a much lower sales multiple than the 0.9x industry average given here, which some see as partial compensation for the lack of near term profitability.
- At the same time, the trailing net loss of US$224.8 million and the statement that the company is not expected to be profitable in the next three years are what keep more cautious investors focused on execution risk despite that discount to the US$16.11 DCF fair value.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Oatly Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
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Oatly's trailing twelve month loss of US$224.8 million, persistent negative EPS and lack of expected profitability highlight meaningful earnings risk for shareholders.
If that level of uncertainty feels uncomfortable, shift your focus toward companies in our 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores that pair more resilient earnings profiles with lower overall risk right now.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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