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e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Is Down 9.2% After Raising 2026 Outlook And Completing Share Buyback - Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St·02/12/2026 08:42:17
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  • In early February 2026, e.l.f. Beauty reported past fiscal third-quarter 2025 results showing higher sales and earnings, raised its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance, and completed a US$100.53 million share repurchase of 1,587,303 shares announced in August 2024.
  • Management highlighted Rhode’s strong contribution to growth alongside expanding retail and e-commerce channels, while using buybacks to return capital and slightly reduce the share count.
  • We’ll now examine how the stronger sales outlook driven by Rhode’s performance could influence e.l.f. Beauty’s existing investment narrative.

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e.l.f. Beauty Investment Narrative Recap

To own e.l.f. Beauty, you have to believe in its ability to keep converting viral, value-oriented brands like Rhode into durable sales growth while managing tariff and cost pressures. Right now, the key near term catalyst is Rhode’s outperformance feeding into higher sales guidance, while the biggest risk remains margin pressure from China-focused sourcing and elevated marketing and SG&A spend. The latest results and guidance upgrade reinforce the sales story but do not remove these cost and execution risks.

The raised fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to US$1.60–US$1.61 billion, driven largely by Rhode, is the most relevant update here. It directly ties the current catalyst higher sales growth from newer brands and international channels to the investment case, while the completed US$100.53 million buyback modestly tightens the share base. Together, they frame a business leaning into growth even as tariffs, marketing intensity, and integration complexity remain key watchpoints.

Yet even with stronger Rhode-driven guidance, investors should be aware that tariffs and China supply dependence could still...

Read the full narrative on e.l.f. Beauty (it's free!)

e.l.f. Beauty's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $294.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 19.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $196.7 million earnings increase from $97.8 million today.

Uncover how e.l.f. Beauty's forecasts yield a $113.77 fair value, a 48% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ELF 1-Year Stock Price Chart
ELF 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Before this news, the most bullish analysts were assuming e.l.f. could reach about US$2.2 billion in revenue and US$288 million in earnings, which is far more optimistic than the baseline view that stresses tariff and marketing cost risks. As you weigh Rhode’s recent outperformance against that upbeat scenario, it is worth asking whether today’s results narrow that gap or simply highlight how differently you and those analysts might see the same stock.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on e.l.f. Beauty - why the stock might be worth as much as 99% more than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.