Is Fox (FOXA) Prioritizing Shareholder Payouts Over Profitability And Creative Investment?

• In the past quarter, Fox Corporation reported second-quarter 2025 revenue of US$5,182 million, modestly above last year, while net income and earnings per share declined versus the prior period.
• Alongside weaker profitability, Fox continued returning capital to shareholders through a US$0.28 dividend and extensive share repurchases totaling very large amounts since 2019, while also investing in brand leadership with the hire of Lucas P. Aragón to shape FOX Advertising’s creative vision.
• We’ll now examine how Fox’s softer earnings, continued buybacks, and dividend decision may influence its existing investment narrative.

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Fox Investment Narrative Recap

To own Fox, you need to believe its focus on live news, sports, and ad-supported streaming can convert stable audience demand into durable cash generation, even as profitability fluctuates. The latest quarter’s softer earnings and margin pressure highlight that the most important near term catalyst is how effectively Fox can translate strong live content and Tubi engagement into profit, while the biggest current risk is that rising costs and slower earnings growth constrain that translation. The Q2 update does not fundamentally change that equation, but it does sharpen attention on execution.

Among the recent announcements, the US$1,550 million repurchase of 20,266,959 shares in the quarter, and 214,845,379 shares since 2019, stands out. For existing shareholders, this matters because buybacks can boost earnings per share over time if Fox sustains its cash generation, but the Q2 earnings decline and lower net profit margins mean investors may increasingly scrutinize whether ongoing repurchases remain well supported by the underlying business trends that are meant to drive future growth.

Yet investors should also be aware that rising content costs and softer margins could challenge Fox’s ability to sustain this pace of capital returns and...

Read the full narrative on Fox (it's free!)

Fox's narrative projects $16.4 billion revenue and $1.9 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Fox's forecasts yield a $74.94 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The most bearish analysts were already assuming roughly flat revenue near US$16.0 billion and earnings around US$1.9 billion by 2028, and when you set that against Fox’s recent margin pressure and the concern that premium sports rights could outgrow advertising and affiliate revenue, you can see how their view sketches a far more cautious path than the consensus, reminding you that informed investors can hold very different expectations that may shift again as new results come through.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Fox - why the stock might be worth as much as 69% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Fox Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Fox research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Fox research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Fox's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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