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To own Monolithic Power Systems, you need to believe its diversified exposure to AI data centers, autos and industrial power solutions can support attractive long term earnings, even with profit volatility. The sharp drop in 2025 net income, paired with rich valuation multiples and short ordering cycles, keeps earnings compression as the key near term risk. The latest dividend hike and CFO transition do not appear to materially alter those core catalysts or risks in the short term.
The most relevant piece of news here is the quarterly dividend increase from US$1.56 to US$2.00 per share. Against a backdrop of sharply lower earnings, this larger cash payout puts more focus on the sustainability of MPS’s cash generation and its balance between reinvestment and shareholder returns, especially if AI, auto or data center demand were to wobble and expose the existing risk of revenue and earnings volatility.
But against this otherwise reassuring story, investors should still be aware of the risk that short ordering cycles and potential inventory corrections...
Read the full narrative on Monolithic Power Systems (it's free!)
Monolithic Power Systems' narrative projects $3.9 billion revenue and $1.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 15.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings decrease of $0.9 billion from $1.9 billion today.
Uncover how Monolithic Power Systems' forecasts yield a $1198 fair value, in line with its current price.
Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were assuming MPS could reach about US$3.7 billion in revenue and nearly US$950 million in earnings, which is a far more bullish view than the baseline and could be tested if project delays and competitive pressures start to bite.
Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Monolithic Power Systems - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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