A Look At Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) Valuation After Q4 Beat And Expanded Buyback Program
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) is back in focus after Q4 2025 results topped Wall Street forecasts on both revenue and earnings, supported by firm demand in higher priced communities and an expanded share buyback plan.
See our latest analysis for Taylor Morrison Home.
The latest Q4 beat and expanded buyback come after a 90 day share price return of 9.61% and a three year total shareholder return of 80.71%. This suggests momentum has built steadily over time despite some near term volatility.
If this earnings beat has you looking beyond homebuilders, it could be a good moment to broaden your search with our screener of 23 top founder-led companies.
With the stock up over 9% in 90 days and trading at US$65.47, alongside an estimated intrinsic value gap and an expanded US$1b buyback, the key question is whether TMHC still offers value or if the market already prices in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 10.3% Undervalued
With Taylor Morrison Home last closing at $65.47 versus a most followed fair value of $73.00, the core narrative sees room between price and fundamentals, built on detailed assumptions about earnings, margins and capital returns.
The company is prioritizing capital efficiency and returns over volume growth for the near term and plans a slower pace of land acquisition and new community starts, even as it invests in technological tools and digitalization, indicating that operational expansion driven by secular housing demand may be capped, limiting upside to revenue and earnings growth.
Curious how a slower top line, steady margins and shrinking share count still support that valuation gap? The narrative leans on specific revenue paths, earnings power and a future P/E that sits below the wider Consumer Durables benchmark. The full breakdown shows exactly how those pieces are combined and discounted at its chosen rate to reach $73.00.
Result: Fair Value of $73.00 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, you also need to weigh risks such as softer buyer demand, lower margin spec sales, and any sustained pressure on order activity that could challenge this story.
Find out about the key risks to this Taylor Morrison Home narrative.
Build Your Own Taylor Morrison Home Narrative
If you see the story differently or prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can shape a complete TMHC view in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Taylor Morrison Home research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If TMHC has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. There are plenty of other stocks that could fit your goals, and you do not want to miss them.
- Target stocks with upside potential by scanning our list of 55 high quality undervalued stocks, which pairs quality fundamentals with prices below their estimated worth.
- Prioritise resilience by checking out 84 resilient stocks with low risk scores, highlighting companies that score well on stability so you can focus on staying invested with fewer surprises.
- Hunt for tomorrow's standouts before they are crowded by reviewing our screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems and seeing which quieter names line up with your criteria.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com