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What Plains GP Holdings (PAGP)'s Profit Rebound Amid Softer Sales Means For Shareholders

Simply Wall St·02/13/2026 04:55:44
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  • Plains GP Holdings, L.P. has reported past fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales of US$10,565 million and net income of US$62 million, alongside full-year 2025 sales of US$44,262 million and net income of US$260 million.
  • Despite lower sales than the prior year, the company moved from a net loss to a profit and lifted earnings per share for both the quarter and full year, pointing to stronger profitability and cost control.
  • We’ll now examine how this improved profitability despite softer sales reshapes Plains GP Holdings’ investment narrative and longer-term risk-reward profile.

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Plains GP Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Plains GP Holdings, you need to believe its focused crude midstream model can keep generating consistent earnings from long-lived pipeline assets, despite energy transition and Permian Basin concentration risks. The latest results show stronger profitability even on lower sales, which supports the near term catalyst of earnings stability and distribution support, but do not fundamentally change the key risk that long term crude throughput could fall if policy or production trends turn against it.

The January 2026 decision to lift the quarterly distribution to US$0.4175 per Class A share is the most relevant recent announcement alongside these earnings. It aligns with the improved profitability shown in 2025 and reinforces the idea that management currently sees room to reward unitholders, though distributions still sit against a backdrop of capital needs, regulatory uncertainty and potential shifts in long term oil demand that could affect future flexibility.

Yet behind the improving earnings, investors should also be aware of the growing risk that long term crude volumes could soften as...

Read the full narrative on Plains GP Holdings (it's free!)

Plains GP Holdings' narrative projects $49.0 billion revenue and $417.5 million earnings by 2028. This implies a 0.9% yearly revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $445.5 million from -$28.0 million today.

Uncover how Plains GP Holdings' forecasts yield a $20.85 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

PAGP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
PAGP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

The lowest analyst estimates tell a much more cautious story, assuming roughly US$44.8 billion of revenue and only about US$225.6 million of earnings by 2028, compared with the more constructive view that stronger Permian assets and fee based contracts could support higher, more resilient profitability. With 2025 results already at US$44,262 million of sales and US$260 million of net income, you can see how this new information might eventually shift both the bullish and bearish narratives.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Plains GP Holdings - why the stock might be worth 22% less than the current price!

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.