A Look At Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Valuation After Mixed Recent Share Price Performance
How Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Has Been Moving
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has caught investor attention after a mixed stretch, with the share price showing negative 1 day and past week returns but positive moves over the past month and past 3 months.
That contrast in short term weakness and recent momentum sits against a longer track record that includes a 5 year total return of 79.4% and a 1 year total return decline of 9.5%, giving you a varied set of signals to weigh.
See our latest analysis for Old Dominion Freight Line.
The recent 4.6% 1 day and 8.23% 7 day share price declines come after a strong 30 day share price return of 8.07% and a 90 day share price return of 40.23%, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 9.47%. This suggests that shorter term momentum has been improving even as longer term returns remain more muted.
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With Old Dominion Freight Line showing mixed recent returns, a value score of 2, and a small 5.6% discount to the average analyst price target, it is reasonable to ask whether there is meaningful upside remaining or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 10.6% Overvalued
Compared to Old Dominion Freight Line's last close at $185.51, the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to $167.79, which points to a premium in the current price and frames how growth, margins and valuation fit together.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $161.048 for Old Dominion Freight Line based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $195.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $129.0.
Want to see what kind of earnings path is being used to justify that valuation gap? The narrative leans on steadier revenue expansion, firm margins and a premium P/E that outpaces the broader transportation group. Curious which combination of growth assumptions and discount rate is doing the heavy lifting in that $167.79 fair value line? The full narrative lays out those moving parts in detail.
Result: Fair Value of $167.79 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, softer LTL tons per day and higher overheads as a share of revenue could keep pressure on margins and challenge the earnings path behind that fair value.
Find out about the key risks to this Old Dominion Freight Line narrative.
Build Your Own Old Dominion Freight Line Narrative
If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply prefer to work from your own research, you can build and share a custom thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way
A great starting point for your Old Dominion Freight Line research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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