Assessing Alkermes (ALKS) Valuation After Recent Share Price Swings
Alkermes overview and recent share performance
Alkermes (ALKS) has drawn investor interest after recent trading showed a 4.6% one day decline, a small loss over the past week, and gains over the past month and the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Alkermes.
Zooming out, Alkermes’ recent 14.2% 1 month and 14.6% 3 month share price returns contrast with a 7.5% 1 year total shareholder return decline, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 72.1% points to a much stronger longer term picture.
If Alkermes’ recent swings have you thinking about where else growth stories could emerge, this could be a good moment to scan 24 healthcare AI stocks as potential new ideas for your watchlist.
With Alkermes trading at $33.29, showing recent revenue and net income growth, and sitting at a 31.6% discount to analyst targets, is the market overlooking upside here or already pricing in the company’s future potential?
Most Popular Narrative: 24% Undervalued
Alkermes' most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $43.81 per share, comfortably above the recent $33.29 close, and anchors that view on its neuroscience portfolio and orexin pipeline.
Expanding demand and market penetration for proprietary neuroscience products, paired with commercial execution, are fueling top-line growth and increasing operating leverage.
Diversified pipeline progress, margin expansion, and financial strength provide flexibility for pipeline acceleration, external growth, and sustained earnings while minimizing dilution risk.
Curious how those headline points translate into numbers? The narrative leans on specific revenue trajectories, margin resets, and a richer future earnings multiple. The full set of assumptions links that $43.81 fair value to detailed forecasts on growth, profitability, and required return.
Result: Fair Value of $43.81 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, those assumptions could unravel if orexin trial results disappoint regulators or if rising R&D and product concentration squeeze margins more than analysts currently factor in.
Find out about the key risks to this Alkermes narrative.
Build Your Own Alkermes Narrative
If you see the story differently or simply prefer to weigh the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes and Do it your way.
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Alkermes.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Alkermes is already on your list, do not stop there. Broadening your watchlist with a few targeted screeners can reveal opportunities you might otherwise miss.
- Scan for potential mispricings by checking companies that stand out in our 55 high quality undervalued stocks and see which ones you want to research next.
- Prioritise resilience by reviewing businesses picked out by the 85 resilient stocks with low risk scores and decide which fit your comfort with volatility and balance sheet strength.
- Hunt for under followed names using the screener containing 23 high quality undiscovered gems and spot ideas before they land on everyone else's radar.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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