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The Bull Case For Nexa Resources (NEXA) Could Change Following Softer 2025 Output And Multi‑Year Guidance

Simply Wall St·02/14/2026 09:22:28
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  • In early February 2026, Nexa Resources reported that 2025 metal sales softened to 567 kt from 591 kt and annual zinc, copper, lead and silver output all eased year over year, while simultaneously issuing 2026–2028 guidance that points to higher metal sales volumes ahead.
  • At the same time, Nexa highlighted strong 2025 drilling results and a planned 2026 exploration campaign of nearly 60,000 meters, underlining efforts to replenish resources, extend mine lives and support its medium‑term production profile.
  • We’ll now examine how Nexa’s positive drilling results and multi‑year sales guidance may reshape its investment narrative for investors.

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Nexa Resources Investment Narrative Recap

To own Nexa Resources, you need to believe its integrated zinc focused portfolio can turn improving assets and stable volumes into stronger cash generation, despite past losses. The key near term catalyst is whether operations like Aripuana and Cerro Lindo can support the company’s new 2026 to 2028 volume outlook; the recent guidance modestly reinforces that story. The biggest risk remains Nexa’s capital intensive profile and leverage, which the latest update does not fundamentally change.

The most relevant announcement here is Nexa’s new 2026 to 2028 metal sales and production guidance, which frames how investors think about volumes and operating leverage over the next three years. Against softer 2025 sales of 567 kt versus 591 kt, the company is now guiding to slightly higher volumes starting in 2026, while also committing US$381 million of 2026 CapEx and almost 60,000 meters of drilling to support mine life and production visibility.

Yet, behind the higher volume guidance, investors should be aware of Nexa’s heavy ongoing CapEx needs and how they could constrain...

Read the full narrative on Nexa Resources (it's free!)

Nexa Resources’ narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $150.5 million earnings by 2029. This assumes fairly flat yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $166.7 million from -$16.2 million today.

Uncover how Nexa Resources' forecasts yield a $7.02 fair value, a 41% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the most optimistic analysts were assuming Nexa could reach about US$3.0 billion of revenue and US$190.7 million of earnings by 2028, which is far more upbeat than the more cautious view that Aripuana’s workforce and cost challenges could keep margins under pressure. As you look at this new 2026 to 2028 guidance and exploration update, it is worth asking whether those bullish forecasts still feel realistic or need to be revisited.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Nexa Resources - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Nexa Resources Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Nexa Resources research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Nexa Resources research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nexa Resources' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.