-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%
-+ 0.00%

Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Is Up 5.6% After Strong Margins And Bigger Buybacks - What's Changed

Simply Wall St·02/15/2026 09:38:39
Listen to the news
  • Taylor Morrison Home Corporation recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with Q4 revenue of US$2,099.64 million and net income of US$174.02 million, both lower than a year earlier but ahead of analyst expectations on an adjusted basis.
  • The company highlighted resilient demand in move-up and Esplanade resort lifestyle communities, industry-leading 23% home-closing gross margins, and an expanded US$1 billion share repurchase authorization through 2027 alongside plans to open more than 100 new communities in 2026.
  • We’ll now assess how beating earnings expectations while leaning into higher-margin move-up and resort communities could reshape Taylor Morrison’s investment narrative.

Find 53 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Taylor Morrison Home Investment Narrative Recap

To own Taylor Morrison, you need to believe its focus on higher margin move up and Esplanade resort communities can offset softer demand, margin pressure and a shrinking backlog. The latest earnings beat supports that thesis in the near term, but guidance for flat-to-modestly higher 2026 closings and ongoing gross margin pressure keeps the key short term catalyst a mix shift toward to be built homes, while elevated spec inventory and incentives remain the biggest risk.

The expanded US$1 billion share repurchase authorization through 2027 stands out here, given Taylor Morrison already bought back 6.5 million shares for US$381 million in 2025. That capital return plan now sits alongside management’s intention to open more than 100 new communities in 2026, including over 20 Esplanade outlets, tying the buyback story directly to the same mix and margin catalysts investors are watching in the operating results.

Yet while the headlines look reassuring, investors should be aware of the risk that heavy use of incentives and spec homes could...

Read the full narrative on Taylor Morrison Home (it's free!)

Taylor Morrison Home's narrative projects $8.3 billion revenue and $874.5 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Taylor Morrison Home's forecasts yield a $73.62 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

TMHC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
TMHC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Before this earnings release, the most optimistic analysts were still assuming annual revenue contraction of about 5% and earnings of roughly US$757 million by 2029, which is very different from the baseline view and highlights how much your expectations around spec inventory and incentives can change the story.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Taylor Morrison Home - why the stock might be worth 39% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Taylor Morrison Home Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

No Opportunity In Taylor Morrison Home?

Markets shift fast. These stocks won't stay hidden for long. Get the list while it matters:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.