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How Investors May Respond To Flex (FLEX) Raising 2026 Sales Guidance While Tightening Earnings Outlook

Simply Wall St·02/17/2026 00:24:26
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  • In early February 2026, Flex Ltd. reported third-quarter 2025 sales of US$7,058 million and nine-month sales of US$20,437 million, alongside lower quarterly net income but slightly higher year-to-date net income versus the prior year, and raised its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to a range of US$27.2 billion to US$27.5 billion while confirming fourth-quarter 2026 guidance of US$6.75 billion to US$7.05 billion in net sales.
  • An interesting angle for investors is that management is simultaneously tightening its earnings outlook and actively seeking accretive M&A while reiterating a focus on maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet and returning capital through opportunistic share repurchases, signalling a balanced approach to growth, financial resilience and shareholder returns.
  • Next, we will examine how Flex’s raised full-year revenue guidance reshapes its existing investment narrative around AI data center growth.

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Flex Investment Narrative Recap

To own Flex, you need to believe it can turn its role in AI data centers and complex manufacturing into durable earnings, despite thin margins and customer concentration. The latest raise in full-year net sales guidance supports the near term revenue catalyst, but the dip in quarterly net income keeps margin pressure and potential insourcing by large data center customers as the key risks to watch.

The most relevant update here is Flex lifting its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to US$27.2 billion to US$27.5 billion. That higher top line outlook, alongside continued buybacks and interest in accretive M&A, reinforces the current catalyst around AI data center demand, while also testing how far Flex can push growth without further compressing its already lean profitability profile.

Yet behind the stronger sales guidance, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Flex (it's free!)

Flex's narrative projects $29.1 billion revenue and $1.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 3.7% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.4 billion earnings increase from $891.0 million.

Uncover how Flex's forecasts yield a $76.12 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

FLEX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
FLEX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the lowest estimate analysts paint a much harsher picture, assuming only about 3.5 percent annual revenue growth to roughly US$28.6 billion and a much lower PE multiple, so if you lean toward their view you might see the new guidance and capital plans very differently.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Flex - why the stock might be worth as much as 21% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Flex Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Flex research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Flex research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Flex's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.