APi Group (APG) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Momentum
APi Group: Stock Performance Snapshot
APi Group (APG) has drawn attention after its recent share move, with the stock last closing at $44.41. That puts the company’s recent returns and valuation metrics in sharper focus for investors.
See our latest analysis for APi Group.
That 1 day share price return of 1.16% fits into a stronger pattern, with a 30 day share price return of 3.71% and a 90 day share price return of 18.68%. Long term total shareholder returns over 3 and 5 years have been much higher than these recent moves suggest, indicating that momentum has been building over time.
If APi Group’s move has you looking beyond a single name, this could be a good moment to widen your search with our screener of 24 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.
With APi Group trading close to its latest analyst price target and an estimated 24% intrinsic discount, the key question is whether you are seeing genuine value here or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 1.1% Undervalued
APi Group's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $44.90, just above the last close of $44.41. The story therefore hinges on fairly tight valuation assumptions.
Consistent expansion in recurring contracts, now targeted to reach 60%+ of revenue by 2028, supports higher adjusted EBITDA margins and predictable cash generation. This is described as further improving earnings quality and financial resilience.
Want to see what is driving that small valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on steady revenue expansion, rising margins and a future earnings multiple that needs to hold up. Curious which specific forecasts have to come true for that to work?
Result: Fair Value of $44.90 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on execution, and persistent cost pressures or more difficult integration of acquisitions could quickly challenge the margin and earnings assumptions behind that small valuation gap.
Find out about the key risks to this APi Group narrative.
Next Steps
If this mix of cautious optimism and concern feels familiar, now is the time to look through the numbers yourself and weigh both sides. You can start with 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If APi Group is on your radar, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover a wider set of stocks that could fit your plan.
- Target stability first by filtering companies with stronger balance sheets using our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results), so you are not relying only on headlines.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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