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Should Universal’s Softer Earnings and Dividend‑First Approach Require Action From Universal (UVV) Investors?

Simply Wall St·02/17/2026 09:17:00
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  • In February 2026, Universal Corporation reported that third-quarter 2025 sales fell to US$861.29 million and net income to US$33.25 million, with both basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations decreasing versus the prior year, and nine-month results showing similarly lower sales and earnings.
  • Alongside these weaker earnings, the company paid no attention to its previously announced buyback program during the latest quarter while still affirming a US$0.82 quarterly dividend payable in May 2026, highlighting a clear preference for cash returns via dividends rather than share repurchases.
  • We’ll now examine how Universal’s softer quarterly earnings and lower year-on-year profitability reshape its investment narrative and future risk profile.

We've uncovered the 13 dividend fortresses yielding 5%+ that don't just survive market storms, but thrive in them.

Universal Investment Narrative Recap

To own Universal, you have to believe its tobacco and ingredients businesses can keep generating dependable cash flows despite volume, pricing and margin pressures. The softer third quarter, with lower sales and earnings, reinforces that near term earnings risk is front and center, but it does not on its own overturn the longer term case for steady cash generation or materially change the key short term catalyst, which remains management’s ability to stabilize margins in Tobacco and Ingredients.

The most relevant development here is Universal’s decision not to repurchase any shares in the latest quarter under its existing buyback authorization, while still affirming the US$0.82 dividend for May 2026. For investors, that combination puts more focus on the sustainability of the dividend at a time when earnings and coverage metrics are under pressure, and on how quickly management can address the expected oversupply and margin compression risks already flagged in the core business.

Yet behind the steady dividend, investors should be aware that margin pressure from an expected tobacco oversupply could...

Read the full narrative on Universal (it's free!)

Universal's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $113.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires a 0.9% yearly revenue decline and about a $10.5 million earnings increase from $103.4 million today.

Uncover how Universal's forecasts yield a $78.00 fair value, a 46% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

UVV 1-Year Stock Price Chart
UVV 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Universal’s fair value between about US$36.55 and US$162.79, reflecting sharply different expectations. Against that wide range, the recent drop in earnings and margins puts fresh attention on how sensitive the business is to tobacco oversupply and pricing, which could materially affect how those valuations play out over time.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Universal - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.