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What Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI)'s Return To Full-Year Profitability Means For Shareholders

Simply Wall St·02/17/2026 12:18:55
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  • Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance recently reported its fourth-quarter 2025 results, with net income of US$29.2 million and earnings per share of US$0.18, alongside full-year net income of US$126.72 million after a prior-year loss.
  • The shift from a full-year net loss in the previous period to profitability in 2025 highlights a significant turnaround in the company’s earnings profile.
  • Now, we’ll examine how this move back to full-year profitability reshapes Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance’s existing investment narrative.

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Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Investment Narrative Recap

To own Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, you need to be comfortable with a mortgage REIT whose appeal rests on income from a diversified loan book, while accepting sensitivity to credit quality and funding costs. The return to full year profitability in 2025 is encouraging, but the softer fourth quarter versus the prior year suggests the most important near term catalyst remains stable distributable earnings, with the key risk still centered on how well its loans perform across different real estate markets.

The latest earnings announcement, showing a swing from a US$119.64 million loss to US$126.72 million in net income for 2025, is the clearest reference point for reassessing this balance between income potential and risk. It also sits alongside a completed buyback of 18,846,037 shares for US$168.4 million, which now appears to be on pause and may influence how investors think about future capital deployment relative to earnings power.

Yet, investors should be aware that credit quality across Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance’s loan portfolio remains a crucial factor...

Read the full narrative on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (it's free!)

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's narrative projects $185.3 million revenue and $165.8 million earnings by 2028. This implies an 11.7% yearly revenue decline and a $42.6 million earnings increase from $123.2 million today.

Uncover how Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance's forecasts yield a $10.55 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

ARI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
ARI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span about US$9.53 to US$11.60 per share, underscoring how differently others can see the same company. Set this against ARI’s recent return to full year profitability and consider how changing loan performance could shape which of those views proves closer to reality, and why it can be useful to compare several such perspectives before deciding how you feel about the stock.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - why the stock might be worth as much as 9% more than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.