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How Investors May Respond To MDU (MDU) 2026 EPS Guidance And Mixed 2025 Profit Trends

Simply Wall St·02/17/2026 18:25:43
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  • In early February 2026, MDU Resources Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing broadly flat sales at US$534 million but higher quarterly net income of US$76.3 million, alongside full-year figures that combined modest revenue growth with lower annual profit.
  • At the same time, the company issued 2026 earnings guidance of US$0.93 to US$1.00 per share, prompting investors to reassess its earnings resilience amid previously flagged pressure on revenue trends and free cash flow margins.
  • We’ll now examine how the new 2026 earnings guidance and softer full-year profit shape MDU Resources Group’s broader investment narrative.

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MDU Resources Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own MDU Resources Group, you need to believe its regulated energy delivery focus can turn steady customer and infrastructure demand into reliable earnings, despite past revenue pressure and tighter free cash flow. The latest results, with flat quarterly sales but higher net income and 2026 EPS guidance of US$0.93 to US$1.00, do not fundamentally shift that thesis. However, they keep the near term spotlight on earnings resilience and the key risk around funding its capital needs without eroding shareholder value.

The most relevant recent development alongside this earnings release is the 2026 EPS guidance itself, given after a year in which revenue grew but net income fell to US$190.4 million. That guidance effectively sets the earnings bar following a period of weaker free cash flow margins and an equity offering filed in late 2025. Together, these updates frame how much earnings support investors might reasonably expect while the company invests heavily across its regulated utility and pipeline assets.

Yet, against those reassuring earnings targets, investors should be aware of the growing possibility that future capital requirements could still pressure margins and lead to...

Read the full narrative on MDU Resources Group (it's free!)

MDU Resources Group's narrative projects $2.0 billion revenue and $233.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.0% yearly revenue growth and a $50.3 million earnings increase from $182.7 million today.

Uncover how MDU Resources Group's forecasts yield a $20.80 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

MDU 1-Year Stock Price Chart
MDU 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Some of the lowest estimate analysts were already assuming only about 2.3 percent annual revenue growth and US$224.0 million of earnings by 2028, so this new guidance may prompt you to reassess whether that more cautious view on margins and cost pressures still fits, or if the recent numbers suggest those expectations could shift in either direction.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on MDU Resources Group - why the stock might be worth 11% less than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.