A Look At Paycom Software (PAYC) Valuation After Strong Results And Cautious 2026 Guidance
Paycom Software (PAYC) is back in focus after its latest earnings release, updated 2026 guidance, and a fresh dividend declaration combined to push investors to reassess the stock and the company’s growth profile.
See our latest analysis for Paycom Software.
Even after the post earnings bounce, with the share price up 4.63% over the last day to US$125.31, Paycom’s 30 day share price return of 15.57% and 1 year total shareholder return of 40.91% show that recent momentum has been weak compared with the longer slump investors have experienced as they react to slower 2026 guidance and a series of cautious broker updates.
If this guidance reset has you reassessing growth software names, it could be a useful moment to look across the broader AI opportunity set and scan 58 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash for other candidates with earnings already supporting their story.
With Paycom now trading at US$125.31 after a long stretch of weak returns, and with guidance calling for 6% to 7% revenue growth in 2026, is the reset overdone or is the market already pricing in everything ahead?
Most Popular Narrative: 51.9% Undervalued
According to the most followed narrative on Paycom Software, a fair value of $260.61 versus the current $125.31 suggests the market is assigning a steep discount and largely ignoring the long term HCM story that sits behind those numbers.
As Beti continues to take market share, Paycom will exercise pricing power to reaccelerate its revenue growth. Furthermore, Paycom’s CRR team will again refocus on cross selling additional HCM products.
Curious how a payroll product rollout and a shift upmarket can support that kind of gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans heavily on recurring revenue, margins and a future profit multiple that points well beyond recent growth guidance. If you want to see exactly which assumptions pull Paycom’s fair value above $260, the full story is worth a closer look.
Result: Fair Value of $260.61 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this story could be knocked off course if Beti adoption drags on longer than expected or if large enterprise wins fail to materialise at scale.
Find out about the key risks to this Paycom Software narrative.
Next Steps
If this mix of risks and potential rewards feels finely balanced, it is worth looking through the data yourself and deciding where you stand. You can quickly get a fuller picture by checking the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that sits behind the latest sentiment.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If this Paycom update has sharpened your focus, do not stop here; broaden your watchlist with a few targeted ideas that line up with your goals.
- Target potential value opportunities by checking stocks our screener flags as 55 high quality undervalued stocks, where fundamentals and pricing appear out of sync.
- Prioritise resilience by scanning 81 resilient stocks with low risk scores for companies that our model scores with lower overall risk profiles.
- Hunt for off the radar opportunities through the screener containing 24 high quality undiscovered gems, highlighting companies that have strong fundamentals but limited current attention.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com