Assessing Tecnoglass (TGLS) Valuation As Shares Show Short Term Momentum But Mixed Longer Term Returns
Why Tecnoglass Stock Is Drawing Attention Now
Tecnoglass (TGLS) is back on many watchlists after a mixed run, with a small monthly decline, a gain over the past 3 months, and a 1-year total return decline of 28.2%.
See our latest analysis for Tecnoglass.
The recent 15.45% 90 day share price return contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 28.2%, so short term momentum has improved even though longer term results remain mixed.
If Tecnoglass has you reassessing where growth could come from next, it may be worth scanning our list of 23 top founder-led companies as potential fresh ideas.
With Tecnoglass trading at $53.43 against an analyst price target of $71.50 and carrying a relatively low value score of 4, is the recent weakness a chance to buy in, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 25.3% Undervalued
At $53.43, Tecnoglass sits well below the most followed fair value estimate of $71.50, putting the spotlight on what is driving that gap.
Ongoing urbanization and population migration trends in the Americas, combined with Tecnoglass's aggressive geographic expansion (notably into Western U.S. states and new commercial markets), are supporting strong visible volume growth and a record project backlog, which is likely to drive sustained top-line revenue growth for 2025 and beyond.
Curious what sits behind that $71.50 fair value? The narrative focuses on steady revenue expansion, firmer margins, and a richer earnings multiple than today.
Result: Fair Value of $71.50 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that upside story can be tested if construction demand softens, or if rising input and logistics costs pressure Tecnoglass's margins and cash generation.
Find out about the key risks to this Tecnoglass narrative.
Another Angle on Tecnoglass's Value
The narrative fair value of $71.50 points to upside, but our DCF model tells a very different story. On that view, Tecnoglass shares at $53.43 sit above an estimated future cash flow value of $30.27, which screens as overvalued rather than underpriced. So which lens do you trust more: cash flows or narratives?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Tecnoglass for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 56 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
If the mixed signals around Tecnoglass leave you torn, do not wait for consensus to form. Instead, pressure test the upside yourself by reviewing the 5 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Tecnoglass has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few targeted ideas that match how you like to invest.
- Target reliable income by reviewing a curated set of companies that our screener highlights as 13 dividend fortresses that could suit a dividend focused portfolio.
- Seek quality at a sensible price by checking companies that screen as 56 high quality undervalued stocks if you want potential upside with fundamentals in view.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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