A Look At Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) Valuation After Full Year Loss And Softer Revenue Results
Why Frontier Group Holdings is back on investors’ radar
Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) has drawn fresh attention after reporting fourth quarter and full year 2025 results that paired softer revenue with a full year net loss and modest shifts in passenger metrics.
The airline posted quarterly revenue of US$997 million versus US$1,002 million a year earlier, with net income of US$53 million compared with US$54 million. For 2025 as a whole, revenue was US$3.724b, while the company moved from net income of US$85 million to a net loss of US$137 million.
See our latest analysis for Frontier Group Holdings.
At a share price of US$5.35, Frontier’s recent Q4 and full year 2025 results, together with the upcoming Barclays conference appearance and a new board appointment, come after a 90 day share price return of 42.67% but a 1 year total shareholder return of 42.35%. This suggests shorter term momentum has picked up while longer term holders have still faced weak overall outcomes.
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With Frontier’s shares near the average analyst target and the business swinging from a US$85 million profit to a US$137 million loss, you have to ask: is this an overlooked low fare operator, or is the market already banking on a rebound?
Most Popular Narrative: 5.6% Undervalued
Frontier Group Holdings' most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $5.67 per share, slightly above the last close of $5.35. This sets up a tight valuation debate.
The expansion of premium product offerings (e.g., first-class seating, UpFront Plus), increased loyalty cardholder engagement, and enhanced ancillary service monetization are driving higher non-fare revenue per passenger, supporting both top-line growth and margin expansion over the medium term.
Curious what kind of revenue growth and margin lift need to line up for that fair value to hold up? The narrative leans on specific traffic, pricing, and profitability assumptions that paint a very different earnings picture from today. The real question is how those moving parts fit together over the next few years.
Result: Fair Value of $5.67 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the story can change quickly if industry oversupply lingers or if Frontier struggles to fill aircraft and cover fixed crew and fleet costs.
Find out about the key risks to this Frontier Group Holdings narrative.
Next Steps
With both risks and rewards in play, do you feel the balance tilts one way yet, or is it time to check the numbers yourself and move quickly to shape your own view with 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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