Is It Time To Reconsider Amprius Technologies (AMPX) After Its 189% One-Year Surge?
- If you are wondering whether Amprius Technologies' current share price lines up with its underlying worth, this article will walk through what the numbers actually say.
- The stock closed at US$9.77, with returns of 11.8% year to date and 189.1% over the past year. However, the recent 7 day and 30 day returns of 15.4% and 11.2% declines show how quickly sentiment can shift.
- Recent attention on Amprius has centred on its role in advanced battery technologies and related partnerships. This helps explain why the share price has been so sensitive to new announcements. Each fresh contract or technology update has fed into changing expectations around how quickly its commercial opportunities might develop.
- Right now, Amprius scores 1 out of 6 on our valuation checks, and you can see the full breakdown in our valuation score. Next, we will compare different valuation approaches and then finish with a framework that can help you make even more sense of these results.
Amprius Technologies scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Amprius Technologies Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars, aiming to estimate what the business might be worth now based on those projections.
For Amprius Technologies, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts with last twelve month free cash flow of about $50.53 million in outflows. Analysts provide explicit free cash flow estimates up to 2029, with Simply Wall St extending the projection out to 2035. Within these projections, free cash flow is expected to reach $15.43 million in 2035, with intermediate years such as 2026 at $2.21 million and 2028 at $72.70 million.
After discounting each of these future cash flows back to today using the DCF framework, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of roughly US$2.08 per share. Against the recent share price of US$9.77, this comparison suggests the stock trades at a substantial premium to this cash flow based estimate, with the model indicating it is 369.7% above the intrinsic value estimate.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amprius Technologies may be overvalued by 369.7%. Discover 56 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: Amprius Technologies Price vs Sales
For companies where earnings are not yet a steady guide, the P/S ratio is often a useful way to compare what investors are paying for each dollar of revenue. It still reflects growth expectations and risk, because investors usually accept a higher P/S when they expect stronger growth or see fewer risks, and a lower P/S when growth is uncertain or risk is higher.
Amprius Technologies currently trades on a P/S of 21.83x. That stands well above the Electrical industry average P/S of 2.51x and also above the peer group average of 15.87x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St estimates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 2.62x for Amprius, which is the P/S level suggested after considering factors such as its growth outlook, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the sector, because it adjusts for the company’s own characteristics rather than assuming it should trade like an average Electrical stock. Compared with the current P/S of 21.83x, the Fair Ratio of 2.62x indicates the shares are trading at a premium to what this framework would suggest.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Amprius Technologies Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are short, shareable stories on Simply Wall St’s Community page where you set your own assumptions for Amprius Technologies’ future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value. You can then compare that fair value with the current share price to decide whether you see it as an opportunity or not. The numbers update automatically when new earnings or news are added. For example, one Narrative might see Amprius as worth around US$12.25 per share based on very strong growth and a 35x future P/E, while another sees fair value closer to US$17.57 or US$16.00 using different growth, margin and discount rate assumptions. This gives you a clear view of how different perspectives on the same company’s story translate into different fair values.
Do you think there's more to the story for Amprius Technologies? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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