Medifast (MED) Q4 Loss Deepens Bearish Narratives On Earnings Sustainability
Medifast (MED) closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$75.1 million and a basic EPS loss of US$1.65, alongside a trailing twelve month EPS loss of US$1.70 on revenue of US$385.8 million. Over the last six reported quarters, revenue has moved from US$140.2 million in Q3 2024 to US$75.1 million in Q4 2025, while quarterly EPS has ranged from a profit of US$0.23 in Q2 2025 to a loss of US$1.65 in Q4 2025. With the stock at US$10.71, the latest print keeps the focus firmly on pressure at the bottom line and on what that means for the sustainability of margins.
See our full analysis for Medifast.With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to compare these results with the most common narratives around Medifast and evaluate which stories about its growth prospects and risk profile still hold up.
See what the community is saying about Medifast
Six-quarter slide in revenue and profit
- Over the last six reported quarters, total revenue moved from US$140.2 million in Q3 2024 to US$75.1 million in Q4 2025, and net income shifted from a profit of US$1.1 million to a loss of US$18.1 million over the same window.
- Analysts' consensus view talks about new offerings like GLP-1 related solutions and programs such as ACTIVE and ASCEND helping to reach more customers. Yet the trailing twelve month figures show revenue at US$385.8 million and net income at a loss of US$18.7 million, which highlights how far current performance is from the growth and recurring revenue potential that narrative points to.
- Consensus mentions higher average order values as a goal. However, the combination of a shrinking revenue base from Q3 2024 to Q4 2025 and the TTM loss suggests that any benefits from new product lines have not offset overall pressure on the top line so far.
- The same narrative leans on better retention and loyalty structures. At the same time, the move from small quarterly profits in late 2024 to larger losses in 2025 indicates that, based on the reported numbers, margin stability has not yet shown up in the consolidated results.
Unprofitable today with deeper FY 2025 loss
- For FY 2025, quarterly net income swung between a profit of US$2.5 million in Q2 and a loss of US$18.1 million in Q4, and on a trailing twelve month basis the company reported a loss of US$18.7 million and basic EPS of US$1.70 in losses.
- Bears argue that a business model built on a shrinking coach network and narrower product focus will keep earnings under pressure, and the move from small profits of US$0.8 million to US$1.1 million in late 2024 to losses across three of the four quarters in 2025, capped by the Q4 loss of US$18.1 million, strongly supports that cautious view.
- Critics highlight that average revenue per coach and total sales per quarter have come under pressure, which lines up with the pattern of revenue stepping down each quarter in 2025 alongside mostly loss-making EPS.
- Bears also point to rising competition from GLP-1 medications and digital health platforms, and the fact that trailing twelve month earnings remain negative at the same time as analysts expect earnings and revenue to decline on average over the next three years reinforces that these competitive pressures are already visible in the financials.
Low P/S multiple against shrinking sales base
- Medifast trades on a P/S of 0.3x compared with an industry average of 1.0x and a peer average of 7.3x, even though trailing twelve month revenue has fallen from US$674.5 million in Q3 2024 to US$385.8 million by Q4 2025.
- Consensus narrative suggests that digital upgrades, coach productivity initiatives and GLP-1 focused offerings could eventually support more stable sales and margins. However, the combination of a low P/S multiple and the step down in twelve month revenue from over US$600 million in late 2024 to under US$400 million by Q4 2025 means investors need to judge whether the current valuation is simply reflecting weaker fundamentals or leaving room for any improvement that these initiatives might bring.
- Supporters of the consensus view may see the 0.3x P/S as a potential entry point if they believe revenues can stabilize closer to past twelve month levels above US$600 million, instead of the most recent US$385.8 million.
- On the other hand, the history of TTM profits moving from US$7.3 million in Q3 2024 to a loss of US$18.7 million and forecasts for continued declines in earnings and revenue suggest that the low multiple can also be read as a clear pricing of ongoing business risk.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Medifast on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
If this all feels mixed, now is a good time to look at the numbers yourself and decide how comfortable you are with the current risk profile. To help frame that view, take a close look at 1 important warning sign and see which issues matter most to you.
Explore Alternatives
Medifast is working through shrinking revenue, recurring losses and a low P/S on a smaller sales base, which all point to a higher risk profile.
If that level of uncertainty feels uncomfortable, this is a good moment to shift your focus toward 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that highlight companies with steadier fundamentals and potentially less volatile outcomes.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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