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To own Chimera Investment, you need to believe its shift toward non-QM and non-agency mortgage credit can offset runoff in the legacy book while managing higher credit and funding risks. Thornburg’s increased stake does not materially change the near term earnings catalyst, but it does spotlight how professionals are reassessing Chimera’s risk reward profile amid leverage, dividend coverage and housing affordability concerns.
Among recent developments, Chimera’s Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results stand out, with net income of US$28.33 million for the quarter and US$230.5 million for the year. Those figures, along with the board’s decision to lift the common dividend to US$0.45 per share for Q1 2026, frame the key question of whether current earnings power can support Chimera’s credit heavy strategy and payout ambitions through ongoing housing market and funding cost pressures.
Yet behind the dividend increase and institutional buying, investors should also be aware of the funding and leverage risk if short term rates or liquidity conditions were to...
Read the full narrative on Chimera Investment (it's free!)
Chimera Investment's narrative projects $382.2 million revenue and $168.2 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.0% yearly revenue growth and a $62.8 million earnings increase from $105.4 million today.
Uncover how Chimera Investment's forecasts yield a $14.50 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.
Some of the most optimistic analysts were expecting revenue near US$377.0 million and earnings around US$165.1 million by 2028, which is a far more upbeat view than the consensus baseline. Thornburg’s higher ownership and the possibility of rising interest expense both highlight how your own take on credit concentration and funding risk could push you closer to, or further from, that optimistic narrative.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Chimera Investment - why the stock might be worth 17% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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