- If you are wondering whether Oshkosh at around US$152 a share still offers value, or if most of the opportunity has already played out, this article walks you through what the current price really implies.
- The stock has seen a 15.3% gain year to date and a 62.0% return over the last year, even after an 8.7% pullback over the past week and an 11.7% decline across the last month.
- Recent attention on Oshkosh has focused on its position in capital goods and investor debate about how its order book, contract exposure, and spending trends in its end markets might support the current share price. At the same time, some market commentary has highlighted questions around how cyclical its earnings could be over time, which feeds into how investors are thinking about valuation and risk.
- On our framework, Oshkosh currently scores 4 out of 6 on our valuation checks, meaning it screens as undervalued on four measures. You can see the full breakdown in our valuation score of 4/6. Next, we will walk through the main valuation approaches behind that figure and then, at the end of the article, look at an even richer way to think about what the stock might be worth.
Approach 1: Oshkosh Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model looks at the cash Oshkosh is expected to generate in the future and then discounts those projected cash flows back to today to estimate what the business might be worth now.
For Oshkosh, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $502.6 million. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts and subsequent extrapolations project Free Cash Flow reaching $875.0 million by 2030, with a detailed path of annual estimates and extrapolated figures between 2026 and 2035. All of these future cash flows are discounted back to today using Simply Wall St’s assumptions about risk and required returns.
On this basis, the DCF model points to an estimated intrinsic value of about $186.96 per share. Compared with the current share price of around $152, the model implies roughly an 18.5% discount, which indicates that Oshkosh appears undervalued on this cash flow approach.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Oshkosh is undervalued by 18.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Oshkosh Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to link what you pay for a share with the earnings that support it. This makes it a useful cross check alongside a DCF model.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect for earnings growth and how much risk they see in those earnings. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk can make a lower P/E look more appropriate.
Oshkosh currently trades on a P/E of about 14.7x. That sits below the Machinery industry average P/E of about 27.2x and the peer group average of around 24.4x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Oshkosh is 28.2x, which is its proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors like the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and key risks. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for those company specific characteristics rather than assuming one size fits all. On this basis, Oshkosh’s actual P/E is below the Fair Ratio, which indicates that the shares screen as undervalued on earnings.
Result: UNDERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Oshkosh Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you describe your story for Oshkosh in plain language, link it to your own revenue, earnings and margin estimates, and end up with a Fair Value that you can compare to the current price. The system updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a bullish Oshkosh Narrative that lines up with a Fair Value near US$188, while another might build a more cautious one closer to US$119, and you can see exactly which assumptions lead to each view.
For Oshkosh, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Oshkosh narratives:
Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$168.73 per share
Implied discount to this fair value versus the last close of US$152.40: about 9.7% undervalued using ((168.73 - 152.40) / 168.73)
Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 5.54% a year
- Analysts in this camp link Oshkosh to multi year demand from infrastructure, data center construction and government programs, with electric and autonomous vehicles playing a central role in supporting the order book.
- They build in higher margins over time as capacity investments, operational improvements in higher margin segments and share buybacks support earnings and earnings per share growth.
- They still flag risks around tariffs, government contract exposure, supply chain and labor costs and cyclicality in construction and defense, but judge that the current price leaves room if these are managed within expectations.
Fair value in this cautious narrative: US$125.00 per share
Implied premium to this fair value versus the last close of US$152.40: about 22.0% overvalued using ((152.40 - 125.00) / 125.00)
Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 3.49% a year
- This view leans into pressure on the Access and Transport segments, where softer non residential construction demand, higher interest rates and policy uncertainty around tariffs could weigh on orders and keep revenue in check.
- It assumes that cost inflation, supply chain issues and the timing and pricing of programs such as NGDV can strain margins, with any benefits from contract resets and capacity investment taking time to show through.
- Even though it acknowledges Oshkosh's focus on AI, autonomy, electrification and sustainability, and references guidance that points to resilient earnings, it treats these as not fully offsetting execution risks and cyclical swings at the current share price.
If you want to go beyond these previews and see exactly how other investors are framing the upside and downside, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives to compare different fair value paths against your own expectations.
Do you think there's more to the story for Oshkosh? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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