Certara (CERT) is back on investors’ radar after closing 2025 with revenue of US$418.8m, a small net loss, and fresh FDA validation of its biosimulation platform through PBPK modeling used in the asciminib NDA.
See our latest analysis for Certara.
Despite FDA validation for its PBPK work and new software launches, Certara’s share price has been under pressure, with a 90 day share price return of 23.91% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 39.10%. This may indicate fading momentum after earlier enthusiasm.
If you see potential in biosimulation but want broader exposure to the theme, this could be a moment to scan 33 healthcare AI stocks as a starting shortlist of related names.
With Certara guiding to flat to low single digit revenue growth in 2026, a small net loss, and a share price well below some analyst targets, you have to ask: is there real upside left here, or is the market already pricing in the next leg of growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 30.8% Undervalued
Certara’s most followed narrative estimates a fair value of $9.60 per share versus the last close at $6.65, which sets up a clear valuation gap for investors to assess.
The upcoming commercial launch of Certara's next-generation, AI-enabled MIDD platform and CertaraIQ QSP software leverages advanced analytics and machine learning, providing differentiated capabilities that democratize access and increase the potential customer base, which should translate to higher recurring revenue and margin expansion through cloud-based SaaS models.
Curious what growth inputs make that valuation work? Revenue assumptions, margin shifts, and a future earnings multiple all have to line up. See how this narrative connects the dots.
Result: Fair Value of $9.60 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, you also have to weigh slower software bookings and cautious 2026 guidance, as well as the risk that pharma customers adopt new biosimulation tools more gradually than hoped.
Find out about the key risks to this Certara narrative.
Another View: Market Multiple Sends A Different Signal
That 30.8% discount to fair value from the SWS DCF model is only one lens. On revenue, Certara trades on a P/S of 2.5x, compared with 2.1x for the US Healthcare Services industry, 1.7x for peers, and a fair ratio of 1.7x. That premium suggests less room for error than the DCF implies. Which signal do you trust more?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If the mixed messages here leave you undecided, that is healthy. This is the moment to move quickly and stress test the bullish side yourself with 4 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Certara has your attention, do not stop here. Broadening your watchlist now can help you spot opportunities that others only notice much later.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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