Bakkt (BKKT) just posted its FY 2025 results with third quarter revenue of US$402.2 million and a basic EPS loss of US$1.02, while trailing twelve month revenue sat at US$3.9 billion against a basic EPS loss of US$5.06. Over recent periods, revenue has ranged from US$214.5 million in Q4 2023 to US$1.8 billion in Q4 2024 and US$1.1 billion in Q1 2025, with EPS swinging between a loss of US$7.25 in Q4 2023 and a profit of US$1.18 in Q1 2025. This gives investors a mixed picture on earnings quality and margin resilience. With the latest quarter back in loss-making territory, the key question is how quickly margins can firm up and whether recent revenue scale can translate into more consistent profitability.
See our full analysis for Bakkt.With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings print lines up with the dominant Bakkt story, highlighting where the narrative matches the data and where the recent results start to push back against it.
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Losses Narrowing Across The Last Five Years
- Over the past five years, Bakkt has reduced its losses at an annualized rate of 11.2%, while trailing twelve month net income excluding extra items is a loss of US$41.5 million and basic EPS over the same period is a loss of US$5.06.
- Consensus narrative supports the view that improving earnings could eventually allow for more durable profits. However, the recent swing from a profit of US$7.7 million in Q1 2025 back to a loss of US$13.3 million in Q3 2025 keeps the question of consistency front and center for anyone relying on that earnings improvement story.
- Bulls often point to the trend of shrinking losses over five years, but the Q3 2025 EPS loss of US$1.02 coming shortly after a Q1 2025 EPS profit of US$1.18 highlights how uneven that path still looks in the reported numbers.
- Supporters of the optimistic view can still reference the longer term loss reduction. Even so, the trailing twelve month loss and the recent quarterly reversal both show that the earnings journey is not yet on a smooth track.
Revenue Scale Versus Profitability Tension
- Bakkt generated US$3.9b of revenue over the trailing twelve months, yet net income excluding extra items over that same period was a loss of US$41.5 million, indicating that large top line figures have not translated into positive earnings so far.
- Consensus narrative often highlights the idea that higher trading and payments volumes could help margins. However, the mix of quarterly revenues from US$214.5 million in Q4 2023 to US$1.8b in Q4 2024 and US$402.2 million in Q3 2025, alongside recurring losses in several of those periods, suggests that scale alone has not been enough for sustainable profitability yet.
- Supporters of the more optimistic angle may look at quarters like Q1 2025, where US$1.1b of revenue coincided with a US$7.7 million profit. The return to losses in Q3 2025, though, shows that this positive combination has not been consistently repeated.
- For a bullish view to gain more traction, investors will likely want to see more than isolated profitable quarters, especially when trailing twelve month data still records a loss despite revenue being close to US$4.0b.
Cheap Sales Multiple With Dilution Risk
- The stock trades on a P/S of 0.1x, which sits well below the US Capital Markets industry average of 3.3x and the peer average of 5.6x, while analysts have a price target of US$40.00 versus the current share price of US$9.63.
- Bears focus on the combination of substantial shareholder dilution in the past year and a highly volatile share price. They argue that even a low P/S multiple and a higher analyst target need to be weighed against the fact that the company is still loss making on a trailing twelve month basis and that analysts also expect revenue to decline about 64.7% per year over the next three years in the provided data.
- Critics highlight that the trailing twelve month loss of US$41.5 million and basic EPS loss of US$5.06 mean the low P/S does not come with positive earnings support yet, so the valuation gap to the analyst target of US$40.00 is not backed by profits today.
- In addition, the forecast of significant revenue declines alongside expected earnings growth sits at the heart of the bearish concern that the path to profitability could rely heavily on assumptions about margins and share count that may or may not play out as anticipated.
Next Steps
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Bakkt on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
With sentiment split between cautious and optimistic takes, it makes sense to look through the numbers yourself and decide how the risk reward trade off feels to you. To help you weigh both sides in detail, start with the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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Bakkt still reports losses despite large revenues, has experienced shareholder dilution, and its earnings and margins have swung between profit and loss in recent quarters.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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