- If you are wondering whether NBT Bancorp at around US$40.97 is starting to look interesting, the current share price and fundamentals raise some clear valuation questions worth unpacking.
- The stock has seen a 0.7% decline over the last week, a 10.4% decline over the past month, and a 1.5% decline year to date, while the 1 year, 3 year, and 5 year returns stand at a 1.9% decline, 34.7%, and 21.3% respectively.
- Recent attention on regional banks, regulatory capital expectations, and investor focus on balance sheet strength has kept sentiment around the sector in the spotlight. Against that backdrop, NBT Bancorp's share price shifts are easier to understand when viewed alongside its fundamentals and perceived quality as a regional bank.
- NBT Bancorp currently holds a valuation score of 5/6. The rest of this article will walk through the main valuation approaches behind that number, before finishing with a way to go beyond the checklist and build a fuller view of what the stock might be worth.
Find out why NBT Bancorp's -1.9% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: NBT Bancorp Excess Returns Analysis
The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a bank can earn above its cost of equity, then capitalizes those extra profits into an estimated per share value. It is less about raw earnings size and more about what those earnings represent relative to the equity invested.
For NBT Bancorp, the key inputs are:
- Book Value: $36.32 per share
- Stable EPS: $4.54 per share (source, weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 5 analysts)
- Cost of Equity: $2.83 per share
- Excess Return: $1.71 per share
- Average Return on Equity: 11.18%
- Stable Book Value: $40.56 per share (source, weighted future Book Value estimates from 6 analysts)
The model converts these excess returns into an intrinsic value of about $88.35 per share. Against a current price around $40.97, this implies a 53.6% discount, suggesting NBT Bancorp screens as materially undervalued on this approach.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests NBT Bancorp is undervalued by 53.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 49 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: NBT Bancorp Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies like NBT Bancorp, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to connect what you pay per share with what the bank earns per share. It gives you a quick sense of how many dollars investors are currently willing to pay for one dollar of earnings.
What counts as a reasonable P/E often reflects two things: how quickly earnings are expected to change over time and how risky those earnings are perceived to be. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while more uncertainty or weaker growth expectations can justify a lower one.
NBT Bancorp currently trades on a P/E of 12.64x. That compares with an industry average P/E for Banks of 11.11x and a peer average of 14.36x, which puts NBT Bancorp between the broader sector and closer peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for NBT Bancorp is 13.34x, a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings characteristics, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk profile. Because it adjusts for these elements rather than relying only on simple peer or industry comparisons, it can be a more tailored reference point. With the current P/E modestly below the Fair Ratio, the shares screen as slightly undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NBT Bancorp Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives are introduced here as a simple way for you to attach a clear story about NBT Bancorp to the numbers you care about, by linking your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a fair value estimate and then comparing that fair value with the current share price to help you decide what action, if any, makes sense for you.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are set up as easy to use, living forecasts that update when new information such as earnings, buybacks or news arrives. This means your view of NBT Bancorp can move in step with the latest data instead of a one off spreadsheet.
For example, one investor might build a Narrative around the analyst consensus fair value of US$48.50 and the underlying assumptions about revenue growth, margins and a future P/E of 13.60x. A more cautious investor might instead plug in lower growth or margin inputs to arrive at a fair value closer to the current price, yet both are using the same framework to connect their story of NBT Bancorp to a financial forecast and a price they feel is reasonable.
Do you think there's more to the story for NBT Bancorp? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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