Vaxcyte (PCVX) is back in focus after publishing VAX-31 Phase 1/2 results in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The data show favorable safety and immune responses versus Prevnar 20 and support progression into broad Phase 3 trials.
See our latest analysis for Vaxcyte.
The VAX-31 update comes after a mixed period for investors, with a 90-day share price return of 17.73% and a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 26.8%, while the 5-year total shareholder return of 130.01% points to stronger longer term momentum.
If this kind of vaccine news has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving in healthcare by scanning 35 healthcare AI stocks
The stock now trades at US$54.65, with an implied gap to the average analyst target and a value score of 3 suggesting mixed signals. Is Vaxcyte still underappreciated or already pricing in the next leg of growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 49.9% Undervalued
At $54.65, the most followed narrative implies a fair value of $109, suggesting the market price sits well below that long term view and putting extra attention on what needs to go right.
Completion of a dedicated large-scale manufacturing facility and progress on a high-volume fill-finish line are intended to support global supply for PCV candidates. This can be important for serving broader demand and improving unit economics and margins over time.
Want to see what sits behind that bold gap between price and fair value? The narrative leans on future revenue build, margin expansion and a premium earnings multiple. Curious which assumptions have the most impact on that $109 figure and how they interact over time? The full narrative lays out the numbers driving that view.
Result: Fair Value of $109 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this depends on late stage VAX-31 data translating into approvals and broad use, and on US$3.0b of cash lasting through heavier R&D and manufacturing spend.
Find out about the key risks to this Vaxcyte narrative.
Another Angle On Valuation
The SWS DCF model estimates Vaxcyte's future cash flows at $91.07 per share, above the current $54.65 price. This also points to an undervalued setup, but with a smaller gap than the $109 narrative fair value. Which set of assumptions feels more realistic to you?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
With the story clearly split between promise and pressure, it makes sense to move quickly and verify the details yourself, including the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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