One thing we could say about the analysts on Qfin Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:QFIN) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting the analysts have soured majorly on the business.
Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the eleven analysts covering Qfin Holdings, is for revenues of CN¥15b in 2026, which would reflect a stressful 23% reduction in Qfin Holdings' sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to dive 44% to CN¥27.34 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥17b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥37.51 in 2026. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.
Check out our latest analysis for Qfin Holdings
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 14% to CN¥166. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Qfin Holdings at CN¥240 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥96.42. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 23% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 4.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Qfin Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Qfin Holdings.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Qfin Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.