• Wondering if Agree Realty at around US$74.40 is offering real value today, or if recent moves have already priced in the opportunity?
• The stock is roughly flat over the past year with a 2.1% return. However, the recent 5.4% 7‑day decline and 6.1% 30‑day decline stand out against a 3.2% gain year to date.
• Recent headlines have focused on Agree Realty as a retail focused REIT. Investors are weighing its long term leasing model against changing views on interest rate sensitive sectors. This shifting sentiment helps explain why the share price has been relatively steady over 1 year while still seeing short term pullbacks.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Agree Realty a value score of 2 out of 6. The rest of this article will walk through what that means across different valuation methods and introduce a more complete way to think about value at the end.

Agree Realty scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Agree Realty Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth today by projecting its future adjusted funds from operations and then discounting those cash flows back to the present.

For Agree Realty, the model uses last twelve months free cash flow of about $482.8 million and extends that out over a two stage forecast. Analysts provide explicit estimates for several years, and Simply Wall St extrapolates beyond that to build a full 10 year path. By 2030, projected free cash flow is $934.3 million, with intermediate annual projections between 2026 and 2035 ranging from around $572.2 million to $1.3b before discounting.

After discounting all those projected cash flows, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $173.76 per share. Compared with the recent share price around $74.40, the DCF output suggests Agree Realty trades at a 57.2% discount and screens as materially undervalued on this measure alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Agree Realty is undervalued by 57.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 61 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Agree Realty.

Approach 2: Agree Realty Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a helpful shorthand for what investors are currently willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. It captures both what the business is earning today and how the market feels about its prospects and risks.

In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can support a higher, or “normal,” P/E ratio. By contrast, slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower one. Agree Realty currently trades on a P/E of 45.38x. That sits above the Retail REITs industry average of 27.19x and the peer average of 23.02x, which suggests investors are paying a higher multiple than these broad benchmarks.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Agree Realty is 38.05x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. Because it incorporates these company level traits, the Fair Ratio can provide a more tailored reference point than a simple comparison with peers or the overall industry.

Comparing the Fair Ratio of 38.05x with the actual P/E of 45.38x points to the shares looking overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Agree Realty Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Meet Narratives, a simple way for you to attach a clear story about Agree Realty to the numbers you care about. You can link your view of its tenants, acquisitions and risks to a financial forecast and a Fair Value, then compare that to the current price to help decide whether to act. Your view then updates automatically on Simply Wall St’s Community page as new earnings or news arrive. This is why one investor might build a Narrative that assumes earnings reach US$321.6 million with a higher Fair Value, while another uses the US$222.6 million earnings case and lands on a much lower Fair Value, even though both are using the same data and tools.

Do you think there's more to the story for Agree Realty? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.