WaFd stock: recent returns and business snapshot
WaFd (WAFD) has seen mixed share performance recently, with a small gain over the past week but a slight decline over the past month and a larger negative move over the past 3 months.
Over a longer horizon, WaFd shows positive total returns for the past year, past 3 years, and past 5 years, providing context for how the current pullback fits within its broader trading history.
The bank holding company for Washington Federal Bank, WaFd generates US$734.5m in revenue and US$228.4m in net income from U.S.-focused thrift and savings operations and related financial services.
See our latest analysis for WaFd.
While WaFd’s recent share price return over the past 90 days has been negative, its 1 year total shareholder return of 14.01% and 5 year total shareholder return of 20.17% point to momentum that has played out more gradually over time.
If this kind of steady banking story appeals to you, it can be worth widening your search and checking out 20 top founder-led companies
With WaFd trading at US$31.59, a 5.7% discount to the US$33.38 analyst target and an estimated 17.5% intrinsic discount, you have to ask: is this a genuine value gap, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 1.9% Overvalued
WaFd’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $31, slightly below the $31.59 last close, which suggests the current price sits just above that view.
The Build 2030 shift toward true commercial banking and small business banking, with management targeting 8% to 12% growth in the active loan portfolio and a mix improvement in noninterest-bearing deposits. If achieved, this could accelerate revenue growth and expand net interest margin, lifting earnings above current expectations.
Want to see what is baked into that fair value? Revenue forecasts, margin tweaks and a lower future earnings multiple all sit at the core of this narrative.
Result: Fair Value of $31 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, you still need to weigh interest rate or credit shocks that could pressure margins and loan quality, as well as any setback in the Build 2030 shift.
Find out about the key risks to this WaFd narrative.
Another view: multiples versus cash flow
Our DCF model suggests WaFd is worth about $38.31 per share, which is roughly a 17.5% premium to the current $31.59 price and points to undervaluation. That stands against the 1.9% overvalued fair value narrative, so which set of assumptions do you lean toward?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
If this mix of opportunities and risks leaves you undecided, review the numbers yourself, and then move quickly to see the full picture in 4 key rewards
Looking for more investment ideas?
If WaFd has your attention, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other focused stock ideas that could suit your goals and risk comfort.
- Target potential mispricings by scanning companies that screen as undervalued on quality and fundamentals through the 61 high quality undervalued stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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