
Find out why Perrigo's -63.7% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash Perrigo is expected to generate in the future and discounts those projected cash flows back to a single value in today’s dollars.
Perrigo’s latest twelve month Free Cash Flow (FCF) is about $143.2 million. The model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. It combines analyst estimates for the next few years with longer term projections that are extrapolated by Simply Wall St. Under this framework, FCF is projected to reach $501 million in 2030, with intermediate annual projections between 2026 and 2035 that step up from $258.3 million to $650.0 million in nominal terms.
Bringing all of those future cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of $51.58 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $9.53, the model indicates Perrigo trades at an implied 81.5% discount. This points to a wide gap between the cash flow based value and where the market currently prices the stock.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Perrigo is undervalued by 81.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 61 more high quality undervalued stocks.
For companies where earnings are less useful or can swing around, the P/S ratio is often a practical way to look at valuation because it compares what you pay for each dollar of revenue, which tends to be more stable than earnings.
Investors usually expect higher P/S ratios when a company has stronger growth potential or lower perceived risk, and lower P/S ratios when growth expectations are modest or the business is seen as riskier. So what counts as a “normal” multiple depends on both growth outlook and risk profile.
Perrigo currently trades on a P/S ratio of 0.31x. This is well below the Pharmaceuticals industry average P/S of 4.08x and the peer group average of 16.60x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Perrigo is 1.86x, which is its view of the P/S multiple that fits the company given factors like its revenue growth, margins, size, industry and specific risks.
The Fair Ratio is often more useful than a simple comparison with peers or the industry average because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than assuming all pharmaceutical stocks deserve similar multiples.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 1.86x with the actual P/S of 0.31x suggests the shares trade at a substantial discount to that benchmark.
Result: UNDERVALUED
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Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, and on Simply Wall St this comes through Narratives. On the Community page, you and other investors attach a clear story about Perrigo to specific numbers such as expected revenue, earnings, margins and a Fair Value estimate. You then compare that Fair Value to the current share price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. Each Narrative updates automatically when new news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a cautious Perrigo view around a Fair Value of about US$15, while another uses a more optimistic Perrigo view closer to US$40. You can see both side by side and choose which story and forecast you find more realistic.
Do you think there's more to the story for Perrigo? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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