Bill Ackman told his 4.4 million X followers Sunday that “some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices” and called the Iran conflict “one of the most one-sided wars in history,” predicting a “large peace dividend.”
The war doesn’t look like it’s ending any time soon. Hours after Ackman’s post, President Donald Trump threatened to “blow up and completely obliterate” Iran’s electric plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened immediately. Meanwhile, Brent crude is above $115 a barrel, up more than 55% in March alone.
Tehran called the U.S. proposals “excessive and unreasonable” and denied being in direct talks. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf went further Sunday, saying Iranian forces are “waiting for the arrival of American soldiers on the ground to set them on fire.”
On Polymarket, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire contract has drawn $63 million in volume. Bettors give just 31% odds of a deal by April 30, rising to 46% by May 31.
On Kalshi, recession odds have hit 39%, the highest level this year.
The odds of U.S. forces entering Iran are currently at 68% by April 30, and 76% by year’s end.
Prediction markets and oil prices suggest Ackman may be wrong, or early, but if the war ends quickly, it could be very good for his portfolio.
What Ackman Has Been Buying
Pershing Square Holdings has lost 19% in 2026, trailing the S&P 500 badly. Over 30% of the $15.5 billion portfolio sits in three Magnificent Seven names: Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) at 12%, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) at 14% and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) at 11%.
Ackman recently sold his long-held Hilton position to add to Amazon and Meta. Brookfield Corp (NYSE:BN) is his largest position at 18%, with Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER) close behind at 16%.
He also called Fannie Mae (OTC:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTC:FMCC) “stupidly cheap,” suggesting a potential 10x. Michael Burry agreed, calling the setup “rare.”
Pershing Square is currently filing to take its management company public, meaning Ackman’s bullish framing may also be serving a fundraising narrative.
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.