Hecla Mining (HL) is back in focus after delivering a notice of full redemption for its remaining US$263 million 7.25% Senior Notes due 2028. The redemption date is set for April 9, 2026.
See our latest analysis for Hecla Mining.
The stock is trading at US$18.63 after an 8.2% one day share price return, but a 25.2% 30 day share price decline means short term momentum has cooled even as the 1 year total shareholder return of around 240% remains very strong.
If Hecla's move toward silver exposure has caught your attention, it could be a good moment to scan for other precious metals names using our 7 top silver producer stocks
With Hecla’s shares already up about 240% over the past year and trading at a discount of around 42% to the US$26.40 analyst price target, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 76.7% Undervalued
Against the last close at $18.63, the most followed narrative pins Hecla’s fair value at $80, implying a very large gap to the current price.
If silver reaches $100/oz and gold reaches $4,000/oz, Hecla Mining’s estimated stock price could be approximately $80/share. This assumes continued strong production and successful project development.
Want to understand why this narrative treats Hecla like a potential cash machine? It leans on aggressive revenue expansion, higher margins, and a punchy future earnings multiple. Curious which specific production and pricing assumptions hold this $80 fair value together?
Result: Fair Value of $80 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that $80 scenario relies on very high silver and gold prices. If project execution or permitting faces delays, the cash flow picture could look very different.
Find out about the key risks to this Hecla Mining narrative.
Another View: Our DCF Model Is More Cautious
That $80 fair value hinges on very bullish metal price assumptions. In contrast, our DCF model, which prices Hecla at $11.37 versus the current $18.63, points to an overvalued stock on future cash flows. Which story you lean on depends on how confident you are in those long term price scenarios.
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Hecla Mining for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With such different views on Hecla in play, it makes sense to check the numbers yourself and decide where you stand, starting with its 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
If you stop with just one stock, you could miss other opportunities that fit your style, risk comfort, and income needs. Consider widening your search.
- Target potential value opportunities by reviewing companies tagged in the 58 high quality undervalued stocks, which pair strong fundamentals with attractive pricing signals.
- Strengthen your income stream by scanning the 12 dividend fortresses for companies offering higher yields supported by their financial profiles.
- Stay on the front foot by checking the 64 resilient stocks with low risk scores to see stocks that score well on resilience and balance sheet stability.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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