• If you are wondering whether STAG Industrial is attractively priced today or whether the market has already factored in the key positives, this article walks through what the current share price might be implying about value.
• STAG Industrial recently closed at US$36.21, with returns of 0.6% over 7 days, an 8.9% decline over 30 days, a 1.9% decline year to date, and a 4.4% gain over the last year, which can signal shifting views on both growth potential and risk.
• Recent news coverage around STAG Industrial has focused on its position within U.S. industrial real estate and on how investors are assessing listed REITs against other income-focused assets. This context helps explain why shorter-term price moves can look different from the 3-year and 5-year returns that sit at 23.5% and 28.6% respectively.
• STAG Industrial currently has a valuation score of 4/6. The sections that follow will compare different valuation approaches before rounding out with a broader framework that can help you judge value more confidently.

Find out why STAG Industrial's 4.4% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: STAG Industrial Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model looks at the cash STAG Industrial is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those adjusted funds from operations back into today’s dollars to estimate what the business could be worth now.

For STAG Industrial, the model uses last twelve months free cash flow of $487.3 million as a starting point. Analyst estimates and extrapolated figures from Simply Wall St project free cash flow ranging from $427.4 million in 2026 up to $732.4 million in 2035, all in $. These projected cash flows are discounted back using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on adjusted funds from operations.

Putting all of those discounted cash flows together gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $46.18 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $36.21, the DCF suggests the stock trades at an implied 21.6% discount. On this model alone, the shares appear undervalued.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests STAG Industrial is undervalued by 21.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 63 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for STAG Industrial.

Approach 2: STAG Industrial Price vs Earnings

P/E is a common way to value profitable companies because it links what you pay for each share directly to the earnings that support that share. In general, higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth and higher risk tend to support a lower, more conservative P/E.

STAG Industrial currently trades on a P/E of 25.32x. That sits above the Industrial REITs industry average of 16.27x, but below the peer group average of 31.08x. This suggests investors are assigning it a premium to the sector overall, yet not the highest rating in its peer set.

Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” of 27.66x is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be, given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk profile. This measure is more tailored than a simple comparison against peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than assuming one size fits all multiples. With the current P/E of 25.32x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 27.66x, the shares screen as modestly undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your STAG Industrial Narrative

Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives take what you already see in the numbers for STAG Industrial, link your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, and then to a fair value that you can compare against today’s price. All of this is available inside Simply Wall St’s Community page, where Narratives are updated when new news or earnings arrive. Different investors might, for example, lean closer to the higher US$46.00 fair value or the lower US$39.00 view based on how they interpret the same information. This can help you decide whether the current price looks high, low, or in line with the story you believe.

Do you think there's more to the story for STAG Industrial? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.