What Ferrari (RACE) investors can glean from recent performance
Ferrari (RACE) has drawn attention after a mixed run in the stock, with a 1 day gain of 1.18% and a 6.29% move over the past week, in contrast with weaker returns over the past month and past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Ferrari.
At a share price of $342.43, Ferrari’s recent rebound, including the 7 day share price return of 6.29%, contrasts with a softer 30 day and year to date share price trend. The 1 year total shareholder return shows a decline of 21.31%, compared with 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns of 29.29% and 69.48%. This suggests that near term momentum has eased following a stronger longer term performance.
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With Ferrari shares recently weaker over 1 year but still far above levels of 3 and 5 years ago, the real question is whether today’s price leaves upside on the table or already reflects future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 19.2% Undervalued
Ferrari's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $423.87, well above the recent $342.43 close. This sets up a detailed story around earnings power and required returns.
Ferrari's expansion of infrastructure and product offerings, including the new e-building and paint shop for enhanced personalization, is expected to increase production flexibility, supporting revenue growth and improved net margins through operational efficiencies.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what kind of revenue path and margin profile are baked into that fair value? The narrative leans on steady growth, rising profitability, and a premium earnings multiple that has to hold up over time.
Result: Fair Value of $423.87 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the story could shift if the 2025 model wave dilutes Ferrari’s exclusivity or if supply chain strains begin to pressure margins and earnings.
Find out about the key risks to this Ferrari narrative.
Another way to look at Ferrari's valuation
The analyst narrative points to Ferrari trading below a fair value estimate, but the P/E picture tells a different story. At 32.9x earnings, the shares sit well above the global auto industry at 16.6x and the fair ratio of 17.9x, which suggests less room for error if sentiment changes.
See what the numbers say about this price, find out in our valuation breakdown.See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
All of this leaves a mixed but interesting picture, so it can pay to look at the data directly and decide where you stand. If you want to see what other investors view as the main positives right now, take a closer look at the 3 key rewards
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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