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To own Lincoln National, you need to believe the company can steadily grow its retirement and protection franchises while managing legacy annuity and mortality risks. The new US$2.00 billion unsecured credit facility modestly improves short term financial flexibility, but does not fundamentally change the biggest near term risk around capital strain from legacy guarantees or the key catalyst of executing on a more capital efficient product mix.
The recent appointment of Todd Lacey as Head of Institutional Sales for Retirement Plan Services ties directly into that catalyst, given Retirement Plan Services is central to Lincoln’s effort to grow fee based and spread based business. His background in building retirement distribution teams aligns with the push to deepen consultant relationships and support higher quality, capital efficient flows that complement the balance sheet flexibility provided by the expanded credit facility.
Yet beneath this improved access to liquidity, investors should still be aware of the potential capital strain if equity markets weaken and legacy variable annuity guarantees...
Read the full narrative on Lincoln National (it's free!)
Lincoln National's narrative projects $21.4 billion revenue and $1.8 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 5.5% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.7 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.
Uncover how Lincoln National's forecasts yield a $45.46 fair value, a 30% upside to its current price.
While the new US$2.00 billion facility strengthens liquidity, the most cautious analysts were already assuming only about US$19.0 billion of revenue and US$1.5 billion of earnings by 2028, so you should recognize how different that view is and consider how this fresh financing detail could shift those expectations over time.
Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Lincoln National - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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