D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has drawn fresh attention after announcing a US$20 million Advantage2 system sale to Florida Atlantic University, a US$10 million Fortune 100 cloud contract, new U.S. defense collaborations, and the acquisition of Quantum Circuits.
See our latest analysis for D-Wave Quantum.
Those contracts and partnerships arrive after a sharp reset in the share price, with a 30-day share price return showing a decline of 21.49% and a 90-day share price return showing a decline of 49.09%. At the same time, the 1-year total shareholder return is 100% and the 3-year total shareholder return is very large. This indicates that recent momentum has cooled following a powerful longer term run.
If this kind of quantum computing story has your attention, it can be worth seeing what else is out there by scanning 25 quantum computing stocks
So after a sharp pullback, a 1,000% 3-year return, fresh contracts and a US$5.1b market cap, are you looking at an early quantum leader on sale, or has the market already priced in much of the future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 65% Undervalued
According to Wil_Analyst's widely followed narrative, a fair value of $40.65 versus the last close at $14.32 suggests a wide valuation gap that grabs attention.
The most critical underlying factor in D-Wave’s 2026 narrative is its unprecedented liquidity. Following the financial restructuring associated with the QCi merger, D-Wave enters 2026 with its largest cash-on-hand position in company history.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to understand why this valuation leans so heavily on liquidity, acquisition scale, and a dual-platform roadmap? The fair value reflects revenue and margin assumptions that link those pieces together.
Result: Fair Value of $40.65 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this bullish setup still faces real tests, including ongoing net losses of US$355.062 million and the risk that large new contracts or acquisitions do not scale as hoped.
Find out about the key risks to this D-Wave Quantum narrative.
Another Lens On Valuation
That $40.65 fair value hinges on a narrative model, but the share price also sits against a very real-world check, the P/B ratio. At 6.2x versus a 2.5x US Software average and an 11.7x peer average, the numbers point to rich pricing versus the sector, yet cheaper versus closer peers. This raises a simple question: is this a premium that keeps stretching, or a frothy tag that has already run hard?
See what the numbers say about this price in the valuation breakdown, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If this mix of strong opinions and mixed signals has you on the fence, it is worth scanning the data now and weighing both sides using our breakdown of 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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