Ed Yardeni is making a clear call: “the market bottom is in”. Even after a volatile session, the veteran strategist told CNBC he's sticking with that view — a sign of conviction at a time when markets are still searching for direction.
But one key signal isn't lining up.
Volatility Isn't Backing The Call
The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX — widely seen as Wall Street's "fear gauge" — is still hovering around the mid-20s, with a recent print near 24–27.
That's not extreme panic territory, but it's also far from calm. Volatility-linked ETFs like the iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short (BATS:VXX) and VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS:VIXY), which track short-term VIX futures, are also reflecting elevated uncertainty.
For context, more stable market environments typically see the VIX settle closer to the mid-teens. Elevated readings suggest investors are still pricing in meaningful uncertainty over the next 30 days.
In other words, the market may be stabilizing — but it isn't relaxed.
What A True Bottom Usually Looks Like
Historically, durable market bottoms tend to align with a clear pattern in volatility.
During the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID selloff, the VIX surged to extreme levels — above 80 — before falling sharply as markets stabilized.
Even in the 2022 drawdown, rallies gained traction as volatility trended lower toward the low-20s and high-teens.
That sequence matters.
Bottoms aren't just about price — they're about volatility peaking and then compressing.
With the VIX still hovering in the mid-20s, that second phase doesn't appear fully in place yet.
Conviction Meets Uncertainty
Yardeni's call may ultimately prove right — markets often turn before the data fully clears.
But with volatility still elevated and price action remaining uneven, the current setup looks more like a transition phase than a confirmed bottom.
For now, the message from the market is clear: the floor may be forming — but it isn't settled.