- Recently, StoneCo Ltd. announced it will release its first quarter 2026 results on May 14, 2026, and entered its quiet period on April 27, 2026, while analysts updated forecasts for earnings and revenue growth.
- Analysts now see StoneCo as potentially undervalued relative to its peers, with rising expectations for earnings and revenue adding to interest in its Brazilian fintech model.
- We'll now examine how these stronger earnings expectations and perceptions of undervaluation influence StoneCo's existing investment narrative and risk profile.
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StoneCo Investment Narrative Recap
To own StoneCo today, you need to believe in its Brazilian fintech platform, its ability to grow earnings from payments and banking, and its discipline around credit risk. The key short term catalyst is the first quarter 2026 earnings release on May 14, with analyst upgrades in earnings and revenue expectations increasing focus on that print. The biggest current risk remains pressure on margins and growth if MSMB payment volumes stay soft. The latest news does not materially change that.
The most relevant update here is the announcement of StoneCo’s Q1 2026 results date and the start of its quiet period on April 27. With analysts now expecting a 29.41% year over year EPS increase and double digit revenue growth for the quarter, this earnings call sits at the center of the near term story, potentially reinforcing or challenging the view that the stock’s low forward P E and perceived undervaluation are justified.
Yet behind the optimism, investors should be aware of rising margin pressure risks, especially if...
Read the full narrative on StoneCo (it's free!)
StoneCo's narrative projects R$17.4 billion revenue and R$5.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 8.2% yearly revenue growth and roughly a R$6.3 billion earnings increase from R$-1.3 billion today.
Uncover how StoneCo's forecasts yield a $20.29 fair value, a 45% upside to its current price.
Exploring Other Perspectives
Some analysts see a much tougher road ahead, even before this latest earnings optimism. The most bearish group was only assuming around 4.6% annual revenue growth and earnings of roughly R$2.8 billion by 2028, which is a far more cautious view than consensus and could shift again as new data comes in.
Explore 9 other fair value estimates on StoneCo - why the stock might be worth 6% less than the current price!
Decide For Yourself
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
- A great starting point for your StoneCo research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
- Our free StoneCo research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate StoneCo's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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