Amcor (AMCR) is back in focus after quarterly earnings per share of $0.21 came in ahead of forecasts, while revenue missed estimates, with the stock recently touching a 52-week high.
See our latest analysis for Amcor.
That optimism has cooled in the near term, with a 1-day share price return decline of 1.89% and a 30-day share price return decline of 7.74%. The 1-year total shareholder return decline of 8.25% and 5-year total shareholder return decline of 13.59% point to longer term underperformance and fading momentum, despite the stock recently touching a 52 week high and Amcor presenting this week at the World Chemical Forum 2026.
If this earnings reaction has you reassessing your watchlist, it could be a good moment to scan beyond packaging and check out 20 top founder-led companies
With earnings beating forecasts but revenue missing, and the share price still below some analyst targets, is Amcor quietly offering value here, or is the recent optimism a sign that markets are already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 698.6% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, Amcor’s fair value sits at $5.00 per share, far below the recent close of $39.93, which creates a wide gap investors will want to understand.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) per share – Estimate: 4.85 dollars; Buffett’s preferred: Not applicable; Status: —; Explanation: A discounted cash flow model using TTM FCF of about 725 million dollars, 0% growth, 9% discount rate and 2.5% terminal growth yields intrinsic value around 4.85 dollars per share.
Want to see how a mature, slow growing earnings profile, rich dividend history and leverage heavy balance sheet all feed into that fair value view? The full narrative lays out the cash flow assumptions, margin expectations and capital structure trade offs that drive the $5.00 estimate, according to andy_c.
Result: Fair Value of $5.00 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still risks that could challenge this overvaluation call, including Amcor’s high leverage and any setbacks to the Berry Global merger or its integration.
Find out about the key risks to this Amcor narrative.
Another Way to Look at Value
The user generated narrative leans heavily on a simple free cash flow model and lands on fair value of $5.00 per share, which implies a very large gap to the current $39.93 price. Our DCF model takes a different approach and points to value of $71.07, which frames Amcor as trading 43.8% below that estimate.
Those two DCF views sit far apart. This raises a practical question for you as an investor: are you more comfortable with a low growth, conservative cash flow path, or with the richer growth assumptions behind the higher SWS DCF output? What would it take in the next few years to justify either?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Amcor for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With mixed views on value and sentiment, it is worth getting closer to the numbers yourself and forming a clear stance while the market is undecided, starting with the balance of 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
If Amcor has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to quickly spot other opportunities that might fit your goals.
- Target resilient cash generators by reviewing companies that pass the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (40 results).
- Hunt for potential mispriced opportunities with the 58 high quality undervalued stocks before the crowd catches on.
- Prioritise income potential and stability by checking companies featured in the 13 dividend fortresses.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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