Ameresco stock at a glance
Ameresco (AMRC) has drawn investor attention after its recent share performance, with a one-month return showing about a 4% decline and a three-month return showing nearly a 20% decline, alongside revenue of US$1.93b and net income of US$44.18m.
See our latest analysis for Ameresco.
After a sharp 1 year total shareholder return of about 127%, recent share price returns have cooled, with a 7 day share price return of about an 8% decline and a 90 day share price return of about a 20% decline. This suggests momentum has faded for now as the market reassesses growth prospects and risks around Ameresco’s energy solutions business.
If Ameresco’s recent pullback has you thinking more broadly about the energy transition theme, it could be worth scanning 28 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
With Ameresco trading at US$24.59 compared with an analyst price target of US$42.60 and an intrinsic value estimate suggesting little margin of safety, investors may question whether there is genuine upside potential or if future growth is already reflected in the current price.
Most Popular Narrative: 42.3% Undervalued
Ameresco's most followed narrative anchors on a fair value of $42.60, well above the last close at $24.59, and ties that gap directly to its long-term earnings potential.
Sharply rising utility rates and escalating grid instability are prompting more public and private clients to pursue long-term energy infrastructure, distributed generation, and microgrid projects, areas where Ameresco's project backlog and pipeline are rapidly growing, indicating upside for future revenues and gross margins as these higher-value projects convert.
Ameresco Future Earnings and Revenue Growth.
Want to see what kind of revenue path and profit margin shift would support that higher fair value? The narrative leans on faster earnings growth, thicker margins, and a valuation multiple that assumes those targets are met. The full breakdown shows exactly how those ingredients combine to reach $42.60.
Result: Fair Value of $42.60 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this upside story could easily be challenged if supply chain setbacks hit project timelines, or if clean energy policy support weakens and slows the backlog converting to revenue.
Find out about the key risks to this Ameresco narrative.
Another angle on Ameresco’s valuation
The analyst fair value narrative leans on earnings and margin forecasts, but a different lens tells a more cautious story. Simply Wall St’s DCF model estimates Ameresco’s future cash flows at about $10.26 per share, compared with the current price of $24.59, which screens as overvalued on that method.
For investors, that gap between a $42.60 analyst fair value and a $10.26 DCF estimate raises a simple question: which set of assumptions feels closer to how Ameresco is likely to convert its backlog and guidance into actual cash generation?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Ameresco for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 58 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Given the mix of optimism and caution running through Ameresco’s story, it makes sense to move quickly, review the numbers for yourself, and see how the upside and downside balance out in your view by checking its 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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