- Wondering if Lattice Semiconductor shares are priced attractively after their recent run, or if expectations are already fully baked in? This article focuses squarely on what you are paying versus what you might reasonably expect to get.
- The stock last closed at US$97.24, with returns of 14.0% over 7 days, 13.7% over 30 days, 23.6% year to date and 145.7% over the past year, which naturally raises questions about how much of the story is already in the price.
- Recent coverage has highlighted Lattice Semiconductor as part of broader discussions around semiconductor names and investor interest in companies exposed to themes like compute acceleration and edge processing. This backdrop helps explain why the stock has been in focus and why valuation has become such a key talking point.
- Lattice Semiconductor currently scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks, indicating no checks where it screens as undervalued. You can see that score in detail at 0/6 valuation score. The rest of this article walks through those methods and finishes with a broader way to think about what the market might be pricing in.
Lattice Semiconductor scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
Approach 1: Lattice Semiconductor Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes the cash that a company is expected to generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today to estimate what the entire business might be worth right now.
For Lattice Semiconductor, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $135.6 million. Analyst estimates are used through 2028, with projected free cash flow of $320.6 million in 2028, and Simply Wall St extends the projections out to 2035 using its own assumptions. All of these projected cash flows, expressed in $, are then discounted back and combined to arrive at an estimated fair value of $37.67 per share.
Compared with the recent share price of US$97.24, the DCF output suggests the stock is 158.1% above this intrinsic value estimate. This points to Lattice Semiconductor trading on a rich cash flow multiple based on these inputs.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Lattice Semiconductor may be overvalued by 158.1%. Discover 62 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: Lattice Semiconductor Price vs Sales
For profitable companies that are still heavily reinvesting, the P/S ratio is often a useful yardstick because it compares what you are paying to the revenue the business is already generating, without getting distorted by near term swings in earnings.
In simple terms, faster and more predictable growth plus lower risk usually justify a higher P/S multiple, while slower or less certain growth and higher risk tend to line up with a lower, more conservative range for what counts as “normal”.
Lattice Semiconductor currently trades on a P/S of 25.44x. That sits well above the Semiconductor industry average of 5.83x and the peer group average of 4.65x. Simply Wall St also provides a Fair Ratio of 12.61x for Lattice Semiconductor, which is the P/S level it estimates based on factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market capitalization and risk characteristics.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry because it incorporates those business specific drivers rather than treating all semiconductor names as interchangeable. Comparing 25.44x with the 12.61x Fair Ratio indicates that the shares are pricing in much stronger conditions than this framework implies.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lattice Semiconductor Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as simple stories that you choose for Lattice Semiconductor. These combine your view on themes like AI, edge computing and supply chain risk with specific assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins to arrive at your own fair value and compare it with today’s share price.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are available as an easy tool used by millions of investors. You can pick or adjust a storyline, link it to a full financial forecast, then see in one place how that translates into a fair value versus the current price and what that might mean for your buy, hold or sell decision.
Because Narratives update automatically when new earnings, guidance or news arrive, you are not locked into a static model. You can see, for example, how a bullish view that aligns with a fair value of US$135.00 compares with a more cautious view closer to US$53.32 or the analyst consensus around US$114.71, then decide which story about Lattice Semiconductor makes the most sense to you.
For Lattice Semiconductor, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Lattice Semiconductor Narratives:
🐂 Lattice Semiconductor Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$114.71 per share
Implied pricing versus that fair value at the last close of US$97.24: about 15.2% below the narrative fair value
Revenue growth used in this storyline: 23.74% a year
- Assumes AI, edge computing and connected devices keep supporting demand for Lattice's low power FPGAs, with product cycles like Nexus and Avant playing a central role.
- Builds in higher margins over time, helped by a richer product mix, software attach and what analysts see as more recurring style revenue from design wins and ecosystem spending.
- Anchors on an analyst consensus fair value of US$114.71, which relies on strong revenue growth, higher earnings and a future P/E around 99x those projected earnings.
🐻 Lattice Semiconductor Bear Case
Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$93.76 per share
Implied pricing versus that fair value at the last close of US$97.24: about 3.7% above the narrative fair value
Revenue growth used in this storyline: 23.04% a year
- Takes a cautious stance on how much of the AI and edge opportunity will translate into durable earnings, given recent revenue pressure, workforce cuts and industry softness flagged in the narrative.
- Builds in risks around supply chain constraints, inventory clean ups and customer concentration, which could affect how consistently Lattice turns design wins into revenue and profit.
- Arrives at a lower fair value of US$93.76, tying this to concerns that current P/E expectations may already assume generous growth and margin outcomes.
If you want to go beyond these snapshots and see every assumption behind them, including full cash flow forecasts and price targets, To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Lattice Semiconductor on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
Do you think there's more to the story for Lattice Semiconductor? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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