Recent performance and context
Autodesk (ADSK) has drawn attention after a period of weaker share performance, with the stock showing negative returns over the past week, month and past 3 months, along with a negative move year to date.
This pullback comes alongside reported annual revenue of US$7.21b and net income of US$1.12b. These figures give you a sense of the company’s current scale in 3D design, engineering and entertainment software.
See our latest analysis for Autodesk.
With the share price at US$234.96, Autodesk’s recent 30 day share price return of a 10% decline and 90 day share price return of a 20% decline point to fading momentum, even though the 3 year total shareholder return of 18.8% remains positive.
If Autodesk’s recent pullback has you rethinking your watchlist, it can help to see what else is moving in related areas of tech and automation, starting with 34 robotics and automation stocks.
With Autodesk trading at US$234.96 and sitting at a sizeable discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic estimates, you need to ask whether this represents a genuine opportunity or whether the market is correctly pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 29.1% Undervalued
At a last close of $234.96 against a narrative fair value of $331.62, Autodesk is framed as materially undervalued, with that gap hinging on long term earnings power and margins.
Accelerating adoption of cloud-based platforms such as Autodesk Construction Cloud and Fusion 360, and ongoing rollout of subscription and SaaS models are increasing recurring revenue, improving revenue visibility, and enhancing net margin stability due to higher operating leverage and sales efficiency improvements.
Want to see what kind of revenue and margin profile would need to sit behind that fair value, and how long Autodesk would have to sustain it? The narrative leans heavily on recurring subscriptions, richer profitability and a future earnings base that supports a premium multiple.
Result: Fair Value of $331.62 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on Autodesk staying ahead in AI tools and avoiding customer pushback on pricing, because cheaper alternatives and changing transaction models could pressure margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.
Another way to look at valuation
The narrative fair value points to Autodesk looking undervalued, but the current P/E of 44.1x tells a different story. It sits higher than the US Software industry at 30.1x and above the estimated fair ratio of 31.8x, which hints at valuation risk if sentiment cools.
For a closer look at how that current P/E compares with what the numbers suggest it could move toward, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If this combination of weaker recent returns and an undervalued narrative leaves you uncertain, it may be useful to review the underlying data directly and move quickly to form an independent view, starting with 4 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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