- If you are wondering whether Autodesk at around US$240.65 is starting to look like value or still pricing in a lot of optimism, the valuation picture is more nuanced than a single number on the screen.
- The stock has returned 1.2% over the last 7 days, following a 7.7% decline over 30 days and a 16.1% decline year to date, while the 1 year return sits at an 8.7% decline and the 3 year return at a 24.6% gain.
- Recent coverage has focused on Autodesk as a key software name in design and engineering tools, with attention on how its subscription model and product ecosystem influence investor sentiment. Headlines have also highlighted how software valuations more broadly are being reassessed, which frames the way moves in Autodesk's share price are being interpreted.
- On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Autodesk currently scores 4 out of 6. The rest of this article will break down what that means using different valuation methods, then finish with a more complete way to think about fair value that goes beyond a single model.
Approach 1: Autodesk Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model projects a company’s future cash flows and then discounts them back to today’s dollars to estimate what the business could be worth now.
For Autodesk, Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $2.36b. Analyst and extrapolated estimates suggest free cash flow could reach about $4.79b in 2031, with intermediate projections ranging from roughly $2.28b in 2026 to $6.25b in 2035, all in dollar terms and then discounted back to today.
Pulling those streams together, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $387.55 per share. Compared with the recent share price around $240.65, this implies the stock is 37.9% undervalued based purely on this cash flow forecast.
DCF models rely heavily on long term assumptions. This is one lens on value, not a final verdict, but it does frame Autodesk as trading at a material discount to this particular estimate.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Autodesk is undervalued by 37.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 64 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: Autodesk Price vs Earnings
For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to link what you pay for each share to the earnings that company is currently generating. It gives you a quick sense of how many dollars investors are willing to pay today for one dollar of earnings.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower, more conservative multiple.
Autodesk currently trades on a P/E of about 45.18x. That sits above the wider Software industry average of about 28.53x, but below the peer group average of roughly 52.80x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio, which is its proprietary estimate of what P/E might make sense for Autodesk given factors such as earnings growth, margins, industry, market cap and risk profile, sits at 31.29x. This Fair Ratio can be more useful than a simple peer or industry comparison because it is tailored to Autodesk’s specific characteristics rather than broad group averages. On this basis, Autodesk’s current P/E is higher than the Fair Ratio, which points to the shares appearing overvalued on this metric.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Autodesk Narrative
Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in, giving you a clear story behind the numbers by linking your view of Autodesk’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a specific fair value, and then comparing that to the current price so you can judge whether it looks attractive or stretched.
On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives let you choose or create a simple storyline for Autodesk, connect it to a forecast and instantly see a fair value that updates as new news or earnings arrive, rather than relying on static models.
For example, one Autodesk Narrative might look closer to the more optimistic view, with a fair value around US$413.07. Another might sit near the cautious end, around US$262.20. By seeing those different fair values alongside the current price, you can decide which story you think is more realistic and how that aligns with your own decision.
Do you think there's more to the story for Autodesk? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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