- If you are wondering whether ONEOK's current share price still offers value, the key question is how that price compares with what the business may be worth.
- With the stock last closing at US$86.18 and returns at 15.9% year to date and 12.0% over the last year, recent moves raise fresh questions about both upside potential and changing risk perceptions.
- Recent news coverage has largely focused on ONEOK's role in the US energy sector and its position in midstream infrastructure. This helps frame how investors think about its long term cash flows and income profile. These themes often feed into expectations for capital investment needs, balance sheet resilience and the reliability of future shareholder returns.
- ONEOK currently has a value score of 4/6, suggesting that several valuation checks point toward potential mispricing. The next sections will walk through the main valuation approaches before closing with a way to see how value fits into the broader story of the business.
Find out why ONEOK's 12.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: ONEOK Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today in dollar terms. For ONEOK, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach built on cash flow projections.
ONEOK's last twelve months free cash flow is about $2.48b. Analyst inputs and subsequent extrapolations point to projected free cash flow of about $5.07b by 2030, with intermediate annual figures ranging from about $3.32b in 2026 to $4.92b in 2029. These future cash flows are discounted to reflect their value in today's dollars, with Simply Wall St extending estimates beyond the analyst horizon using its own assumptions.
On this basis, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$189.79 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$86.18, this output implies that ONEOK is trading at a 54.6% discount to the model's estimate of fair value.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ONEOK is undervalued by 54.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 62 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: ONEOK Price vs Earnings
For a profitable business, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for what the market is paying today for each dollar of earnings. It helps you compare companies regardless of their absolute share price, as long as earnings are positive and reasonably stable.
What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what investors expect from a company. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower one.
ONEOK currently trades on a P/E of 16.0x. This sits above the Oil and Gas industry average of about 14.8x, but below the peer group average of 20.0x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for ONEOK is 24.7x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.
This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison because it aims to adjust for the company’s own growth outlook, risk profile and profitability, rather than assuming all Oil and Gas stocks should trade on the same multiple.
With the Fair Ratio of 24.7x above the current 16.0x P/E, this framework points to the shares screening as undervalued on an earnings multiple basis.
Result: UNDERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ONEOK Narrative
Earlier sections showed how models like DCF and P/E can flag potential mispricing. Narratives go a step further by letting you attach a clear story and set of assumptions to ONEOK, link that story to a forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then see a Fair Value that updates automatically on Simply Wall St's Community page as new news or earnings arrive. You can then compare that Fair Value with the current share price and decide whether the business looks attractively priced or stretched based on your own view.
On ONEOK, for example, one Narrative aligns with a more optimistic view that ties to a Fair Value of US$108.00. It is built on assumptions such as revenue reaching US$40.2b and earnings of US$4.5b by 2029 with a P/E of about 19x and a discount rate of 7.1%. Another Narrative reflects a more cautious stance with a Fair Value of US$74.00, based on revenue of US$30.3b and earnings of US$3.7b by 2028 on a 21.5x P/E and an 8.0% discount rate.
For ONEOK however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading ONEOK Narratives:
Both use the same company, price and industry data, but they tell very different stories about what could matter most over the next few years. Use them as bookends, then decide where your own view sits between the two.
Fair Value: US$108.00
Implied discount to this Fair Value: 20.2%
Revenue growth assumption: 6.09%
- Views ONEOK as a beneficiary of US gas and NGL demand, with integrated midstream assets and new projects supporting fee based volumes and operating leverage.
- Assumes higher free cash flow over time that could support balance sheet improvement and income distributions, subject to execution and capital allocation choices.
- Flags key risks such as energy transition pressure on fossil fuel demand, acquisition integration, debt levels and contract renewal outcomes that could affect volumes and margins.
Fair Value: US$74.00
Implied premium to this Fair Value: 16.5%
Revenue growth assumption: 3.49% decline
- Views flat 2026 guidance and a reset period as signs that earnings momentum could be limited without stronger support from commodity conditions or volumes.
- Emphasizes higher capital spending needs, hydrocarbon concentration and exposure to regulation and decarbonization trends that could weigh on utilization and free cash flow.
- Assumes modest revenue growth at best, with long term pressure on asset values and valuation multiples if renewable adoption and policy changes move faster than expected.
Both Narratives are built on analyst forecasts, explicit assumptions for revenue, margins, valuation multiples and discount rates, plus clearly laid out risk lists. The DCF and P/E work earlier in this article show how the numbers stack up today. These Narratives show how different assumptions about energy demand, capital spending and policy can lead to very different conclusions about what ONEOK might be worth over time.
If you want to see how the community refines these assumptions or build your own version, you can start from these two cases and adjust the revenue paths, margins and multiples until they line up with your view of the business.
To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for ONEOK on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.
Do you think there's more to the story for ONEOK? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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