On CNBC Squawk Box, Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler said the market remains "bullish, but with a lowercase b," expects roughly 5% upside, and sees better opportunities outside the "Mag 7," favoring rotation into sectors like energy over big tech.
The "Mag 7" refers to seven leading large-cap U.S. technology and growth companies—Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)—that drive strong revenue growth and play a central role in advancing AI, while accounting for a substantial share of the S&P 500's overall performance.
Modest Upside With Downside Risk
Johnson said he expects the market to finish the year up about 5%, reflecting a cautious stance. He added that the market could still "flush out or test lows" and reach 6,100 before year-end.
He pointed to oil prices near $100 a barrel as a signal that investors do not yet see an end to the ongoing conflict, which continues to weigh on sentiment.
Tech Strength Masks Broad Weakness
Johnson said large technology names are propping up the broader averages while masking underlying weakness. He noted that more than half of the tech sector is down by more than 30% year to date, meeting the definition of a bear market.
He added that even companies like Nvidia, despite strong earnings and positive commentary, have failed to move higher, suggesting these stocks may be over-owned or losing momentum.
Rotation Toward Energy And Lower-Cap Names
Johnson said market leadership has shifted toward sectors like energy, basic materials, and utilities, which are currently outperforming.
He reiterated that "there's better places to make money down cap" and described the "Mag 7" as potentially becoming the "lag 7."
He also noted that recent market gains have come on low volume, indicating a lack of strong investor participation and suggesting the market is already being driven by a short squeeze rather than fresh buying.
- U.S. energy stocks include Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP).
- U.S. basic materials stocks include Linde plc (NASDAQ:LIN), Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO), and Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM).
- U.S. utility stocks include NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:NEE), The Southern Company (NYSE:SO), and Duke Energy Corporation (NYSE:DUK).
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