Stock performance snapshot
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) has drawn investor attention after recent trading left the shares around US$3.28, with mixed performance over the past week, month and past 3 months.
The stock shows a 0.8% decline over 1 day, a 5.6% gain over 7 days, a 4.8% decline over the past month and a 29.5% decline over the past 3 months, alongside a 21.8% decline year to date.
See our latest analysis for Recursion Pharmaceuticals.
Despite the recent 7 day share price return of 5.6%, the year to date share price return of 21.8% and 1 year total shareholder return of 43% point to momentum that has been fading rather than building.
If Recursion's mix of artificial intelligence and drug discovery has your attention, this can be a good moment to broaden your research with a focused set of 36 healthcare AI stocks
With RXRX trading around US$3.28, a value score of 2, an intrinsic discount of 65% and a price target gap of over 100%, investors now face a key question: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 66.6% Overvalued
Against the last close at around $3.28, the most followed narrative assigns a fair value of $1.97 using a discount rate of about 7.1%, which implies Recursion is priced well above that narrative view.
RXRX is a terrible biotech only because the INSIDERS themselves don’t believe in it! All they’re doing is milking the heck out of this doomed stock! Never seen a company where ALL they’re doing insiders are selling! Stock continues to go down every month! CEO said in 2014 that in 10 years there would be 100 new drugs! 12 years later they have ZERO 0️⃣!!! This stock went from over $40 to under $4! The hype is unbelievable! Worst biotech ever!!! Nuff said
This narrative leans on aggressive revenue trajectories, a profitable margin profile and a rich future earnings multiple, all compressed into a single fair value number. Curious which assumption does the heavy lifting here? The full story spells out exactly how those inputs combine into that $1.97 figure.
Result: Fair Value of $1.97 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, changes in insider activity patterns or the company’s clinical trial execution timelines could challenge this overvalued view if either shifts meaningfully from current expectations.
Find out about the key risks to this Recursion Pharmaceuticals narrative.
Another view on RXRX's valuation
That $1.97 fair value from the popular narrative sits sharply against our DCF model, which estimates Recursion's future cash flow value at $9.43, with the shares around $3.31. One approach points to overvaluation, the other to a large discount. Which story do you trust more?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Recursion Pharmaceuticals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 62 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With such different narratives in play, it is worth checking the numbers yourself rather than relying on any single viewpoint. Consider both the concerns and the potential upside using the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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