Recent share performance and business profile
With no single headline event driving MasTec (MTZ) today, the recent share performance has caught attention, including a 1 day return of 1.1% and a past 3 months return above 60%.
MasTec operates across five segments. Communications, Clean Energy and Infrastructure, Power Delivery, and Pipeline Infrastructure together generate most of its US$14.3b in annual revenue, largely from customers in the United States.
See our latest analysis for MasTec.
The recent 30 day share price return of 18.9% and 90 day return of 65.0% sit within a much stronger backdrop, with a 1 year total shareholder return above 200% and multi year gains above 3x. This points to strong momentum and shifting expectations about MasTec’s growth and risk profile.
If MasTec’s run has you thinking about what else is moving in infrastructure, this could be a good moment to scan 30 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
With MasTec trading around US$361, slightly above the average analyst target and at a premium to one intrinsic value estimate, the key question is whether this momentum is justified or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 7% Overvalued
MasTec’s most followed narrative puts fair value at $336.32 using an 8.66% discount rate, compared with the recent $361.22 close, so the story leans ahead of the model.
Rapid acceleration in utility grid modernization, data center build-outs, and renewable energy investment is fueling double-digit revenue growth and record backlog in MasTec's Power Delivery and Clean Energy & Infrastructure divisions, the company's leading position and customer relationships indicate continued outsized top-line expansion over the next multi-year cycle.
Want to see what is baked into that fair value jump, from revenue run rates to future margins and earnings power multiples? The full narrative spells out the growth math and how those assumptions translate into today’s pricing tension.
Result: Fair Value of $336.32 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, investors still need to weigh execution risk on large projects and acquisitions, as well as the possibility that permitting or policy shifts could slow backlog conversion and cash generation.
Find out about the key risks to this MasTec narrative.
Next Steps
Given the mix of optimism around growth and concern about execution and policy risks, it makes sense to move quickly and review the full picture for yourself by weighing 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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