ONE Gas (OGS) has drawn fresh attention after outlining a US$800 million capital investment program for 2026, paired with management targets for adjusted earnings growth through 2030 and recent optimism from a major Wall Street bank.
See our latest analysis for ONE Gas.
The share price has moved to US$90.00 after a 90 day share price return of 17.19% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 24.15%, reflecting recent enthusiasm around the capital plan and upcoming Q1 2026 results.
If this type of utilities story has your attention, it may be a good moment to see what else is setting up for long term growth through the 30 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
With the shares now near the latest analyst target and management aiming for adjusted earnings growth through 2030, the key question is simple: is ONE Gas still on sale or is the future already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued
ONE Gas's most followed narrative points to a fair value of $90.14, which sits just above the last close of $90.00, and leans on a tightly defined earnings roadmap.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $90.14 for ONE Gas based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $105.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $78.0.
Curious what earnings path needs to play out for that fair value to stick, and how profit margins and future multiples fit into the story? The full narrative lays out those assumptions in plain numbers and shows exactly what has to go right, and by how much.
Result: Fair Value of $90.14 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, you also need to weigh the risk that high capital spending and rising operating costs might not be fully recovered through future regulatory decisions.
Find out about the key risks to this ONE Gas narrative.
Another Angle: Earnings Multiple Flashes Caution
That analyst fair value of about $90 leans on a detailed earnings roadmap, but the simple P/E check paints a tougher picture. ONE Gas trades on about 21.4x earnings, compared with 14.8x for the global gas utilities group and 20x for peers, while the fair ratio is 19.3x. That gap suggests investors are already paying a premium, so the question is whether the current growth and regulatory story fully justifies it.
For a closer look at what this valuation gap could mean in practice, including how it might close over time, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With sentiment clearly mixed between optimism on growth and caution on valuation, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and decide quickly where you stand, starting with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
If ONE Gas has sharpened your focus, this is the moment to broaden your watchlist and compare it with other opportunities lining up across the market.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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